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Cogent Communications CEO: AI Could Reignite Internet Traffic as Price Compression Persists
Yahoo Finance· 2026-03-07 19:02
Core Insights - The CEO of Cogent Communications, Dave Schaeffer, indicated that AI inference could significantly boost internet traffic growth beyond the current rate of approximately 10% as AI adoption matures and streaming video consumption stabilizes [1][7]. Industry Overview - Internet traffic growth has historically averaged about 23% annually over the past 35 years, but current growth is closer to 10% due to an expanded user base [3]. - Streaming video has become a major growth driver, with its share of video consumption in developed markets increasing from 18% five years ago to 54% today [2]. Company Positioning - Cogent is preparing for AI to be the next major driver of internet traffic growth while navigating a competitive landscape marked by price compression [4]. - The company targets annual revenue growth of 6%–8% and aims for approximately 200 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion [5][20]. Financial Strategy - Cogent's low-cost network allows it to compete at about a 50% discount to market pricing, contributing to its status as the largest global carrier by traffic [6][10]. - The company has a roadmap for de-levering, including a $750 million secured refinancing plan to replace unsecured notes due in 2027 [5][25]. Market Dynamics - Price per bit has decreased by about 23% annually, leading to a flat total addressable market in dollar terms, with price compression expected to continue indefinitely [8]. - The competitive landscape has narrowed, with the number of legitimate global carriers decreasing from around 25 a decade ago to six or seven today [13]. Service Offerings - Internet services account for over 85% of Cogent's revenue, with a significant market share in North America [11]. - The company has recently entered the Wavelength Division Multiplexing business, targeting a total addressable market of about $7 billion globally [16][14]. Growth Initiatives - Cogent plans to expand its footprint by adding approximately 120 carrier-neutral data centers annually and is focusing on geographic expansion, particularly in India and Thailand [22]. - The company has initiated a retrofit program for its acquired real estate portfolio, aiming to enhance its operational efficiency [23].