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RCL's Yield Momentum Holds Up: Can Pricing Stay Firm in 2026?
ZACKS· 2026-01-14 14:10
Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) shows strong pricing resilience despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with net yields in Q3 2025 remaining significantly above historical levels due to robust close-in demand, increased onboard spending, and disciplined capacity management [1][10] Group 1: Pricing and Demand - Close-in bookings reached record levels, enabling RCL to achieve premium pricing without early discounting, which contributed to net yield growth surpassing internal expectations [2] - The company benefits from higher onboard and pre-cruise spending, which is primarily booked digitally, enhancing revenue visibility and supporting adjusted EBITDA margin expansion [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - Management is confident in maintaining elevated yield levels into 2026, citing healthy booking curves and strong premium demand, although growth rates are expected to moderate [4] - RCL's pricing strategy appears well-positioned to withstand sector-wide growth moderation, as it does not heavily rely on discounting [7] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - RCL's yield performance stands out in the industry, as competitors like Carnival Corporation and Norwegian Cruise Line are experiencing a more tempered pricing environment [5] - While competitors are increasingly depending on ancillary revenues to support yields, RCL maintains firm pricing through effective capacity control and refined revenue management [7] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - RCL's shares have declined by 6.2% over the past three months, contrasting with the industry's growth of 6.1% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.26, which is below the industry average of 17.76 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL's 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 14.1%, although EPS estimates have decreased in the past 30 days [15]