Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is facing a pricing-to-inflation dislocation as it enters 2026, with management expecting a full-year pricing increase of about 1% to 2% against an overall inflation projection of 3% to 4%, leading to approximately 150 basis points of year-over-year restaurant-level margin pressure in 2026 [1][7] Pricing and Margin Pressure - The most significant imbalance is anticipated in the first quarter, where pricing is expected to contribute about 70 basis points to comparable sales while inflation is near 4%, resulting in an estimated 250 basis points of restaurant-level margin pressure [2][7] - Management acknowledges that the pricing-to-inflation gap will narrow throughout the year, but margins are still expected to remain under pressure [2] Cost Factors Impacting Margins - Additional cost pressures are affecting margins, particularly in beef, avocados, and cooking oils, with full-year cost of sales inflation expected to be in the mid-single-digit range [3] - Tariff impacts are decreasing, from approximately 30 basis points in Q4 2025 to an anticipated ongoing effect of about 15 basis points in 2026, but other costs, including marketing expenses projected in the low-3% range of sales, are adding to margin strain [3] Long-term Margin Outlook - Management views the current margin compression as cyclical rather than structural, with expectations that productivity initiatives, operational efficiencies, equipment enhancements, and scale benefits will support a gradual recovery towards high-20% margins [4] Stock Performance and Valuation - Chipotle's stock has decreased by 37.2% over the past year, contrasting with a 6.6% decline in the industry, while competitors like Starbucks, Sweetgreen, and CAVA have seen declines of 14%, 81.1%, and 51.4%, respectively [5] - From a valuation perspective, CMG trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.56, which is below the industry average of 3.75, while competitors have P/S multiples of 2.81, 0.8, and 5.14 [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG's 2026 earnings per share has declined over the past 30 days, with projections indicating a 2.6% decrease in earnings for 2026, while competitors like Sweetgreen and CAVA are expected to see increases of 12.7% and 6.7%, respectively [11][14]