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Sprouts Farmers vs. Costco: Which Retail Stock Is the Stronger Play?
ZACKSยท 2025-10-27 13:51
Core Insights - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) are significant players in the retail sector, with SFM focusing on fresh, natural, and organic foods, while Costco operates a membership-based warehouse model offering bulk goods at discounted prices [1][2][3] Company Overview - Sprouts Farmers Market has a market capitalization of approximately $10.4 billion and operates over 450 stores, targeting health-conscious consumers with a focus on quality produce and wellness-driven assortments [1][4] - Costco has a substantial market capitalization of approximately $413.1 billion, with 914 warehouses globally, including 629 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and 110 in Canada [2] Market Trends - Both companies are adapting to an evolving retail landscape marked by inflation and changing consumer values, with a heightened focus on affordability and quality [3] - Sprouts Farmers is experiencing a shift towards healthier eating habits, while Costco leverages its scale and pricing power to maintain customer loyalty [3][10] Financial Performance - Sprouts Farmers anticipates comparable-store sales growth of 7.6% in Q3, down from 10.2% and 11.7% in the previous quarters, indicating a normalization in growth rates [6] - Costco's membership renewal rates are strong at 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada, contributing to its resilient business model [11][12] Growth Strategies - Sprouts Farmers is expanding its in-house brand portfolio, focusing on high-quality, organic, and nutrient-rich products to enhance customer engagement and category growth potential [5][8] - Costco plans to open 35 new locations in fiscal 2026 and has seen strong e-commerce performance, with comparable sales rising 13.6% year over year [13][14] Stock Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sprouts Farmers' current financial-year sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 15.5% and 41.9%, respectively [15] - For Costco, the current fiscal-year sales and EPS estimates indicate year-over-year growth of 7.7% and 11%, respectively [18] Valuation Metrics - Sprouts Farmers is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 18.29, below its one-year median of 30.84, while Costco's forward P/E ratio stands at 46.02, below its median of 50.40 [22] Investment Outlook - Costco is viewed as the stronger investment option due to its membership model, scale efficiencies, and consistent renewal rates, while Sprouts Farmers, despite its niche appeal, faces moderating growth and competitive pressures [23]