Private Credit Direct Lending
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Golub Capital(GBDC) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-19 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.39, with an adjusted NII return on equity (ROE) of 10.4% [4] - Adjusted net income per share was $0.36, resulting in an adjusted ROE of 9.6% [4] - Cumulative distributions for fiscal year 2025 totaled $1.65 per share, representing 10.9% of end-of-year net asset value per share [4] - The net asset value (NAV) per share at the end of fiscal year 2025 was $14.97, which is 34 cents above the IPO NAV in 2010 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 90% of GBDC's investment portfolio remains in the highest-performing internal rating categories [11] - The investment income yield was 10.4%, a sequential decline of 20 basis points [12] - The weighted average rate on new investments was 8.9%, a decline of 30 basis points from the prior quarter [18] - The investment portfolio decreased to just under $8.8 billion at fair value, with $371 million in repayments and exits [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private credit direct lending market is facing headwinds, including narrowed spreads and a credit cycle with elevated defaults [6][26] - The default rate in the broadly syndicated market is currently about two and a half times historical average levels [26] - GBDC's effective borrowing costs decreased to 5.6% annualized, which is considered industry-leading [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - GBDC's investment strategy focuses on providing first-lien senior-secured loans to middle-market companies backed by strong private equity sponsors [3] - The company aims to maintain a stable NAV per share, minimize excise taxes, and adjust its base distribution level infrequently [9] - GBDC plans to revisit its dividend policy early next year based on the outlook for rates and asset spreads [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The U.S. economy shows resilience, but there are signs of weakness, particularly among lower-end consumers [25] - Elevated credit stress is expected to persist, impacting different BDCs in varying ways [26] - The company believes that the current environment may allow private credit specialists to outperform [10] Other Important Information - GBDC's liquidity position remains strong, ending the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion in liquidity [24] - The company repurchased 368,000 shares during the quarter, totaling 2.9 million shares for the fiscal year [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Availability of co-invest - GBDC has not seen any meaningful change in the availability or quality of equity co-invest opportunities over the past years [31][32] Question: Themes in the economy - There is optimism regarding capital spending due to tax provisions, but concerns exist about the subprime consumer facing stress [39] Question: Spread compression risks - The compression of spreads is widespread across various debt categories, and a change in investor sentiment would be necessary for spreads to move higher [40][41]