February 9, 2026 12:27 AM GMT Commodity Matters | Europe Thermal Coal: Upside Risk from Indonesia Output Cuts We flag upside risk to thermal coal prices from Indonesian output cuts. Recent RKAB quota indications suggest material cuts for smaller miners, and we forecast an 17% drop in Indonesian exports YoY. Weak China demand partially offsets price impact, but we still see a tighter market YoY by 18 Mt. Key Takeaways The Indonesian government is aiming for extensive output cuts in 2026: It aims to support c ...