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CCL's Revenue Flow-Through Improves: What's Supporting Margin Gains?
ZACKS· 2026-01-06 17:36
Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) demonstrated improved revenue flow-through in fiscal 2025, with operating income per available lower berth day reaching its highest level in nearly two decades, indicating effective conversion of revenue growth into profitability [1][7]. Revenue and Profitability - The improvement in profitability is attributed to Carnival's operating model, where a significant portion of ship-level expenses is fixed once vessels are deployed. As occupancy, pricing, and onboard spending increased, costs were distributed over a larger revenue base, leading to meaningful margin expansion despite higher dry-dock activities and inflationary pressures [2][4]. - Ongoing sourcing efficiencies, operational discipline, and scale benefits contributed to the company's performance, with cruise costs excluding fuel rising at a measured pace relative to revenue growth, allowing for stronger operating performance [3][4]. Future Outlook - The enhanced ability to convert revenues into profitability is expected to support a more balanced earnings profile for Carnival. The company’s efficiency in generating higher profitability from its existing fleet is becoming increasingly evident as revenues grow on a controlled cost base [4]. Stock Performance and Valuation - CCL shares have increased by 9.8% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 2.5%. In contrast, competitors like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line have seen declines of 11% and 5.6%, respectively [5]. - CCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.62, significantly below the industry average of 17.18, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to peers [9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival's fiscal 2025 earnings per share has been revised upward from $2.40 to $2.47, reflecting strong analyst confidence in the stock's near-term prospects [12].