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Ulta Beauty Sales Momentum Builds As K-Beauty Expansion And Fewer Discounts Drive Growth
Benzingaยท 2025-08-22 15:43
Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty Inc. is experiencing positive momentum ahead of its earnings report, driven by stronger sales trends, tighter promotions, and increased product innovation, leading to expectations of robust growth and higher profitability in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings Forecast - JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers raised his second-quarter comparable sales forecast to 4.8%, significantly above the Street's expectation of 2.5% and his previous estimate of 2% [2] - If Ulta meets the forecast, earnings could exceed the original full-year EPS guidance by approximately $1.40 in the first half [4] - Horvers projects EPS of $24.85 in 2025, $28.03 in 2026, and $31.64 in 2027, supported by a 3.5% same-store sales growth [4] Group 2: Product Innovation and Promotions - Product innovation has nearly quadrupled year over year, with the introduction of eight new K-Beauty brands, while Ulta has narrowed promotions to exclude fragrance and prestige categories [3] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Forecasts - Horvers reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Ulta and raised his price forecast from $525 to $600, citing stronger comps and higher EPS [1] - Other analysts have also turned positive on Ulta, with Barclays upgrading the stock from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raising its forecast from $518 to $589 [6] - Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating and increased its forecast from $510 to $600, while Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating and boosted its forecast from $542 to $600 [7] Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - Ulta's unique mass-prestige mix, loyalty program data, and market-leading assortment position the company for sustainable margin expansion, share gains, and earnings growth [5] - The company is expected to provide a more meaningful full-year raise after modestly lifting first-quarter guidance [4]