Summary of Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China property industry, specifically analyzing the land acquisitions and sales outlook for 2025 and 2026 [1][10]. Key Findings on Land Acquisitions - **Land Purchase Growth**: The value of land purchases by listed companies increased by 15% year-over-year (yoy) to RMB 478 billion, contrasting with a 7% decline in 300 cities [2][16]. - **Acquisition Concentration**: Only 13 listed companies participated in land purchases in 2025, accounting for 43% of the total, with the top five companies responsible for 71% of the acquisitions [4][24]. - **Geographic Focus**: There was a slight increase in spending in Tier-2 cities, which accounted for 42% of total land purchases in 2025, up from 40% in 2024 [3][32]. - **Top Buyers**: The leading companies in land acquisition included COLI, Poly China, and CR Land, with significant yoy growth from COGO (+96%), Jinmao (+78%), and CMSK (+56%) [4][26]. Sales Outlook - **Sales Projections**: Estimated sales for 2026 are expected to decline by 16% yoy, following a 25% decline in 2025. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are projected to have a smaller decline of 6%, while non-SOEs may see a 17% drop [6][19]. - **Luxury Market Resilience**: High-end properties in core cities are expected to perform better, with companies like Jinmao and Greentown projected to achieve slight sales growth [6][19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The majority of land acquisitions were made by SOEs, which accounted for 75% of land purchases in 2025, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the market [6][19]. Financial Metrics - **Attributable Sales Ratio**: Land purchases represented 33% of attributable sales, marking a new high since 2021, indicating increased investment appetite among leading companies [2][20]. - **Cost Trends**: The average land acquisition cost increased by 23% yoy, reflecting a premium for prime land in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities [3][20]. Additional Insights - **Market Conditions**: The land market was more active in the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in sales and a decrease in inventory levels in top cities. However, activity slowed in the second half due to declining sales and secondary price drops [19][36]. - **Strategic Focus**: Companies are increasingly focusing on acquiring high-quality land rather than engaging in indiscriminate purchases, with a notable shift towards securing resources in economically robust Tier-2 cities [15][32]. Conclusion - The China property market is experiencing a complex landscape characterized by selective land acquisitions, a focus on high-quality assets, and a challenging sales environment. The performance of leading companies will be critical in navigating these dynamics as they prepare for 2026.

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