Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes predicts that a second term for Donald Trump could lead to significant changes in US monetary policy, which he believes would favor Bitcoin as a result of these shifts [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Control - Hayes argues that a new administration would seek to exert direct control over the Federal Reserve to re-industrialize the economy and manage national debt by influencing its leadership [2]. - He suggests that this control could be achieved by early 2026 through strategic appointments and potential resignations, creating a dominant voting bloc on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Yield Curve Control - The ultimate goal of this strategy is to implement Yield Curve Control, which would involve capping interest rates to finance economic initiatives, similar to strategies used during World War II [4]. - This policy would focus on incentivizing lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which represent nearly half of US employment [4]. Group 3: Credit Expansion and Bitcoin Valuation - Hayes contrasts this proposed economic strategy with post-2008 quantitative easing, labeling it "QE 4 Poor People" for its focus on benefiting "Main Street" rather than large corporations [5]. - The strategy may require a massive credit expansion, potentially exceeding $15 trillion by 2028, which could lead to significant dollar debasement and drive investors towards hard assets like Bitcoin [5]. - Based on credit growth models during the pandemic, Hayes speculates a Bitcoin price of $3.4 million by 2028, emphasizing confidence in the asset's overall direction despite the speculative nature of the figure [6].