Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China’s Economic Sentiment and Domestic Demand - **Date**: September 24, 2025 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Insights 1. **Domestic Demand Cooling**: Domestic demand in China is slowing more than expected, attributed to a fading fiscal impulse and reduced effectiveness of consumer goods trade-in programs. The growth rate for Q3 GDP is projected at 4.5%[5][6][7] 2. **Exports Remain Firm**: Despite domestic demand cooling, exports are holding steady, with a year-over-year growth of 10.4% in container throughput as of the third week of September, largely due to a low base from adverse weather last year[4][5] 3. **Commodity Prices**: The anti-involution impulse is fading, leading to a short-lived rise in commodity prices. However, this increase may not be sustainable as rising costs for downstream firms may not be passed on to final demand[3][5] 4. **Policy Stance**: The Chinese government is expected to implement modest, targeted quasi-fiscal support rather than large-scale stimulus. This includes potential funding for infrastructure and settling local government payables[5][7] 5. **Cyclical Policy Measures**: Anticipated quasi-fiscal easing measures include Rmb500 billion in new policy-based financial instruments for local infrastructure investment and tapping into policy bank loans to help local governments settle payables, which could total Rmb5-10 trillion[7][5] 6. **Reform Discussions**: The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to discuss structural reforms related to cadre evaluations, tax systems, and social insurance systems, which are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations and unlocking household savings[7][5] Additional Important Points 1. **Retail Growth Decline**: Retail growth in sectors such as autos and home appliances has cooled further in September, influenced by a high base effect and the diminishing impact of trade-in programs[6][20] 2. **Property Market**: Property sales and construction activities remain subdued, with year-over-year growth for housing sales expected to decline due to base effects[6][5] 3. **Container Throughput Divergence**: There is a notable divergence in performance between exports to the US and other regions, with US-bound shipments showing little change[4][12][14] 4. **High Frequency Data**: Recent high-frequency data indicates a negative sequential price momentum in major upstream sectors since mid-August, suggesting a potential downturn in commodity prices[3][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for investment opportunities and risks.