Summary of Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE: CP) - **Date**: February 18, 2026 - **Speakers**: Keith Creel (CEO), Chris Verone (IR) Key Points Industry and Operational Performance - **Current Operations**: The railroad is performing well with operating metrics at record levels for the first quarter, despite typical winter challenges [6][8] - **Volume Trends**: RTM (Revenue Ton Miles) is expected to show low single-digit positive growth for the quarter, driven by a record grain harvest of 85 million metric tons, which is 20% more than last year [8][9] - **Automotive Sector**: CPKC has outpaced the industry in automotive despite a down market, expecting continued growth in 2026 [11] - **Intermodal and International Growth**: The company is well-positioned in international intermodal and has seen positive developments with partners like Hapag-Lloyd [10] Financial Performance and Growth Projections - **Earnings Growth**: CPKC anticipates double-digit earnings growth driven by single-digit RTM growth, even with macroeconomic challenges [13][14] - **Pricing Strategy**: The company has been able to maintain pricing above 4% due to the value proposition of its network, which is expected to become even more compelling as truck rates rise [23][24] - **Free Cash Flow**: CPKC is shifting capital priorities towards rolling stock, with a sustainable CapEx target of CAD 2.6 billion to CAD 2.7 billion, supporting a strong free cash flow conversion story [50][51] M&A and Regulatory Environment - **Merger Discussions**: CPKC is preparing for a public debate regarding potential mergers, emphasizing its unique position and the complexities involved in large-scale integrations [60][62] - **Regulatory Challenges**: The company acknowledges the potential for regulatory hurdles in merger approvals, citing historical challenges faced by the industry [66][71] - **Concessions for Mergers**: CPKC is focused on ensuring competitive access in overlapping markets and protecting its competitive niche in key areas [80] Future Opportunities and Challenges - **Market Dynamics**: The company is optimistic about growth opportunities in the North American market, particularly in light of trade rebalancing and the need for supply chain diversification [38][39] - **Operational Complexity**: CPKC recognizes the operational challenges that come with mergers and the importance of careful integration to avoid disruptions [75][78] - **Capacity for Growth**: The company has built latent capacity into its network, positioning itself well for future volume increases as market conditions improve [27][28] Miscellaneous Insights - **Deregulation Impact**: CPKC has made progress in efficiency improvements through deregulation, although some opportunities are still pending [44][46] - **Innovative Solutions**: The company is exploring new products and services, such as the Southeast Mexico Express (SMX), to enhance its offerings and capture additional market share [24][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting CPKC's operational performance, financial outlook, regulatory environment, and future growth opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl has lowered the price target for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) to C$112 from C$116 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares, indicating a more reasonable valuation following the KCS merger [1] Group 1: Price Target and Rating - The price target for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) has been reduced to C$112 from C$116 [1] - The firm continues to hold a Buy rating on the shares [1] Group 2: Merger Impact and Valuation - The KCS merger has allowed Canadian Pacific Kansas City to achieve higher EPS growth compared to its peers [1] - The current valuation of the company is considered more reasonable post-merger [1] Group 3: Market Focus and Estimates - Investor fund-flows are currently concentrated on U.S. rail mergers and acquisitions [1] - Estimate revisions for Canadian Pacific Kansas City remain slightly negative [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation and logistics industry Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in U.S. imports, with a 6.1% week-over-week increase as of May 18, outperforming seasonal expectations by 980 basis points and showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Spot rates for truckload transportation have surged, with dry van rates increasing by 6.1% week-over-week, outperforming historical averages [3] - There are concerns regarding potential freight demand impacts due to tariffs, with expectations of a flat outlook for dry van spot rates in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Import & Congestion Monitor - Container bookings from China to the U.S. are at five-year lows, down 27% compared to 2023, indicating subdued future demand [2] - The report notes a recovery in container imports at the Port of LA/LB, which increased by 24% week-over-week [2] Truckload and Rail Data - Spot rates for dry van, reefers, and flatbed have all increased week-over-week, with dry van rates now 4% higher year-over-year [3] - The dry van load-to-truck ratio increased by 57% week-over-week, indicating a tightening market [6] - Rail management teams express skepticism about the feasibility of transcontinental mergers due to regulatory barriers [7] Airfreight & Surface Transportation - Airfreight rates have been monitored closely due to tariff implications, with significant declines observed in key freight lanes, particularly the China-U.S. lane, which fell by 6% week-over-week [10] - The overall airfreight market is experiencing broad-based weakness, with all major lanes underperforming seasonal expectations year-to-date [10] Rail Performance - The report card for railroads indicates varying performance levels, with some railroads rated as excellent while others are fair or poor [9] - Regulatory challenges are highlighted as a significant barrier to potential mergers in the rail industry, with environmental impact studies being particularly burdensome [7]