Core Thesis - Ramaco Resources, Inc. is facing skepticism regarding its rare-earth ambitions, particularly in scandium oxide, which is projected to generate over US$500 million in EBITDA by 2028, despite the current coal business providing steady cash flow [2][4] Financial Projections - The company's model anticipates scandium oxide sales at US$3,750/kg with annual production of 179 tons, leading to projected revenues of US$611 million, which are deemed unrealistic given the global market conditions [3] - Current market prices for scandium are around US$600–700/kg, with total annual production under 40 tons, suggesting that Ramaco's revenue projections are significantly inflated [3] Operational Status - The rare-earth project is still in the pilot stage, lacking current output or revenue diversification beyond coal, and there are no binding customer contracts or significant government funding to support the ambitious projections [2][3] - The full-scale facility for the mine is years away, and any deviations in price or yield could drastically reduce projected returns [4] Valuation Insights - Ramaco's coal operations generated Q3 2025 revenue of US$121 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$8.4 million, with a standalone coal valuation estimated at US$12–15 per share, plus an additional US$8–10 for the rare-earth venture [4] - The fair value of the stock is suggested to be between US$20–25 per share, contrasting with current market prices that may overstate speculative upside [4] Market Performance - The stock price of Ramaco Resources has appreciated approximately 4% since previous bullish coverage, indicating some realization of the growth trajectory and rare-earth optionality, but valuation risks remain due to unrealistic assumptions about scandium [5]