In the wake of the US government shutdown, which delayed official jobs and CPI reports, the Federal Reserve is expected to pivot to private sector indicators for insights into labor markets and inflation. Key alternatives include the ADP employment report, which tracks payroll data from over 26 million workers and has shown some long-term correlation with the BLS non-farm payrolls data. Although the short-term correlation is pretty weak, ISM manufacturing and services indexes, which are real-time surveys on ...