Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may face challenges in managing its dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining low unemployment due to potential long-term oil price increases driven by the Middle East conflict [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is currently expected to implement two or three quarter-point rate cuts this year to support a fragile U.S. labor market [1] - As of January, the Fed has kept borrowing costs unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% [1] Group 2: Impact of Oil Prices - A sustained increase in crude oil prices could complicate the Fed's ability to balance inflation control with employment levels [1]