Geopolitical Risk Assessment - NATO needs a more assertive policy to deter Russian airspace violations [1] - Showing force is the only way to stop Russian incursions in the Baltic and NATO airspace [1][2] - Increased NATO presence in the Baltic Sea changed the pattern of Russian incursions [2] Strategic Implications - Russia will likely seek alternative methods to test and challenge the alliance [2] - Incidents involving underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea have occurred [1]