WE ARE ON DAY 11 OF DONALD Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu's war with Iran, a war of choice launched with constantly shifting rationale, sometimes even minute to minute, and now mired in obfuscation and lies. This week, Donald Trump ran into the U .S. , a fundamental strategic contradiction at the heart of this war, it keeps presenting itself over and over.Donald Trump wants a war with Iran, a big military victory and regime change. And he also wants to keep gas prices low. And guess what.You can only have, at ...

The latest regional conflict is reshaping the Middle East. In the new era of open combat among America, Iran, Israel and the Gulf states, everyone must confront hard questions https://t.co/XaRw2qPikGPhoto: Arash Khamooshi/Polaris/Eyevine https://t.co/WxTfMp6clq ...

THE UNITED STATES IS HITTING NEW TARGETS IN THE CAPITOL CITY OF TEHRAN AT THE SAME TIME, ISRAELI FORCES ARE BOMBARDING IRAN AND LEBANON AS THE ASSAULT IS NOW IN ITS SIXTH DAY. IRAN MEANWHILE LAUNCHED A WAY THE U .A .E. DETECTED SEVEN BALLISTIC MISSILES FIRED AT ITS TERRITORY, SIX OF WHICH WERE INTERCEPTED AND DESTROYED.MORE IRANIAN STRIKES WERE ALSO REPORTED IN ISRAEL AND IRAQ. THE LATEST SIGNS OF A BROADENING. REGIONAL CONFLICT.MEANWHILE, THE IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THAT THE U .S. WOULD QUOTE, BITTER ...

in full force and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives. They could have done something two weeks ago, but they just couldn't get there.CENTCOM shared the news that three U .S. military service members have been killed in action. As one nation, we grieve for the true American patriots who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation, even as we continue the righteous mission for which they gave their lives.We pray for the full recovery of the wounded ...

Geopolitical Risk - The region faces rising tension [1] - Arctic nations engaging in regional conflict would represent a significant geopolitical failure [1]

Market Reaction & Risk Assessment - Initial market reaction to the US attack on Iran is expected to be a knee-jerk sell-off of risk assets and a buying of haven assets, followed by a quick rethink [2] - The severity of the market reaction depends on whether the conflict remains regional or broadens to affect US assets or extends beyond the Middle East [3] - A contrarian view suggests that if the nuclear threat of Iran is significantly hampered, it could remove a major risk to Middle East stability and be a net positive for stocks [6] - Monitoring trade flows in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Horn of Africa is crucial; major disruptions would trigger alarms, first in commodities, then FX, and finally equities [11][12] Oil Market - Oil prices initially increased by approximately 4%, later paring back gains but still up almost 3% [3][4] - Brent crude's movement above $80 a barrel, a level not seen since early January, is a key number to watch [4] - Whether oil prices remain at or exceed $80 will be determined by events in the Strait of Hormuz [5] Treasury Market - The Treasury market's reaction is complex, influenced by both the Middle East situation and the US fiscal situation [8] - Concerns about higher energy prices potentially leading to higher inflation could send bonds in the opposite direction [8] - Market activity in long-dated bonds is currently muted, with low volume and little price change, but this could change soon [9] Geopolitical Factors - Iran's response, and its severity, is a key factor to watch [11] - The Tel Aviv 35 index closed at a record high for six consecutive days, indicating a positive market sentiment in Israel [7]

Geopolitical Risks - US bombers struck Iran's three main nuclear sites, escalating the conflict with Israel [1] - President Trump announced the obliteration of Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities and threatened further attacks [1] - Iran's foreign minister warned of everlasting consequences following the US strike [2] - The US strike raises the possibility of a broader regional conflict, with potential impact on US assets [2] - Iran retaliated by firing more missiles towards Israel [3] Military and Security - The US has approximately 50,000 service members stationed across the region [2] - The US State Department began evacuating US citizens from Israel prior to the attack [3] Nuclear Safety and Regulation - Iran's nuclear regulatory agency reported no signs of radiation contamination at the targeted sites [1] - The IAEA nuclear watchdog reported no increase in off-site radiation levels [1]