Regulatory reform in cannabis industry
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Tilray Brands: Path To 5x Growth For TLRY Stock
Forbesยท 2025-08-26 13:40
Core Viewpoint - The potential reclassification of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III by the Trump administration could significantly impact the cannabis industry, particularly for Tilray Brands, with projections indicating a possible doubling of revenues and substantial stock gains [2][10]. Revenue Growth Projections - The global legal marijuana market is expected to grow at a 25.4% CAGR, with Schedule III reclassification likely to enhance legitimacy, banking access, and institutional participation [4]. - Tilray's revenues could increase from $821 million to approximately $1.65 billion over three years due to multiple reform-related factors [5][10]. Valuation Multiple Expansion - Currently, Tilray trades at 1.8x trailing revenues, significantly lower than the broader market's 3.2x multiple, primarily due to regulatory uncertainty [7]. - A successful Schedule III reclassification could justify a valuation multiple expansion to 5.0x, aligning Tilray with peers like Cronos, which trades above 7x trailing revenues [7][13]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include tax savings from the removal of Section 280E, improved banking access, interstate commerce opportunities, international expansion, and increased legitimacy of medical cannabis [6][10]. Target Valuation Scenario - The target valuation for Tilray could reach $8.25 billion based on projected revenues of $1.65 billion, representing an upside potential of over 400% from the current valuation of $1.6 billion [13].