Core Insights - The rental yield of personal housing has been on a downward trend since 2022, driven by the "rent-to-sell" strategy, with a projected decline of approximately 7.3% by 2025 compared to 2022, averaging a decrease of 2.4% per year [3] - Despite the overall decline in rental yields, first-tier cities are experiencing a differentiated rental market, with some types of housing seeing rental increases [3][5] Personal Housing Market - The number of new personal housing listings nationwide is expected to reach 5.77 million by 2025, a slight decrease of 3% year-on-year, but still at a high level [5] - The four first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) account for about 141,000 new listings, nearly one-fifth of the market share, with Beijing leading at 610,000 listings [5] - Rental yields in first-tier cities show significant variation, with Beijing at 81 CNY/㎡/month (down 3.6%), Guangzhou at 40 CNY/㎡/month (down 9.1%), Shanghai at 77 CNY/㎡/month (down 1.3%), and Shenzhen being the only city with an increase of 4.2% [5][9] Centralized Apartment Market - In 2025, rental yields for centralized apartments in Beijing and Guangzhou are expected to rise, while Shanghai and Shenzhen continue to adjust [8] - Beijing's centralized apartment rental yield is projected at 188.9 CNY/㎡/month (up 1%), while Guangzhou's is 89.2 CNY/㎡/month (up 1.8%) [8][9] - Shanghai has seen a continuous decline in rental yields for four years, but the rate of decline has significantly narrowed compared to previous years [8] January 2026 Market Trends - As of January 2026, personal housing rental yields in key cities continue to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a decrease of less than 1% [10] - Despite the decline in rental yields, the average rental price in 55 key cities has increased by 0.5%, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing month-on-month increases [10] - The average rental prices in January 2026 are 7,377 CNY/month in Shenzhen, 6,258 CNY/month in Shanghai, and 5,926 CNY/month in Beijing [12] Policy Impact - Shanghai's pilot policy for acquiring existing second-hand homes for rental housing aims to stabilize rental prices in the mid-to-low-end market while reducing the supply of marketable housing in core areas [11] - This dual-track rental market is expected to become clearer, with a trend towards differentiation in rental prices [11] Overall Market Dynamics - The rental market in first-tier cities is undergoing significant changes in supply-demand structure, rental trends, and market forms, indicating a new dual-track pattern of "guaranteed bottom and market quality improvement" [12] - The market is showing signs of structural recovery driven by improved rental demand, while guaranteed rental housing continues to stabilize rental prices [12]