Replacement cycles
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The Middleby Corporation (MIDD): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-22 02:42
Core Thesis - The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) is viewed positively due to its potential for growth driven by replacement cycles, strategic spin-offs, and operational improvements, with an intrinsic value estimated at $160, potentially rising to $220 in a bullish scenario [4]. Company Overview - Middleby Corporation is a global leader in food equipment, operating in Commercial Foodservice (CFS), Food Processing (FP), and Residential Kitchen (RK) segments [2]. - The company achieved a 39.7% CAGR from 2001 to 2016 under previous leadership, but growth has slowed since then, with an 11.8% total return over the past 8.5 years [2]. Segment Analysis - The CFS segment includes ovens, fryers, and refrigeration, serving major clients like McDonald's and Burger King, with demand driven by replacement cycles and new builds [3]. - The FP segment, which is set for a spin-off in 2026, focuses on processing for protein and bakery products, while the RK segment targets premium residential products [3]. Management Initiatives - Recent management strategies include revamping go-to-market approaches, aligning sales incentives, and focusing on technology-driven acquisitions [4]. - Long-term projections suggest organic growth of approximately 2-2.5% and EBIT CAGR of around 4.8% through 2035, with an anticipated $7 billion in free cash flow for shareholder returns [4]. Market Valuation - At a share price of $132, the market is perceived to undervalue the company’s upcoming replacement cycles and operational improvements, with a significant upside potential [4].