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US Economy: Still ‘Exceptional' in Our View
Etftrends· 2025-09-30 22:53
Core Viewpoint - The narrative suggesting the US is losing its global power is challenged by highlighting its economic resilience and strength, asserting that the US remains the strongest large economy and corporate sector in the world [1][8]. Economic Growth Trends - The US economy has shown relative growth trends over the last decade, growing faster than Europe and Japan before the pandemic, experiencing a smaller drop during the pandemic, and rebounding more robustly afterward [2]. Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) Insights - The US Composite PMI for August registered at 53.6, indicating expansion and surpassing other developed economies, which correlates with a projected year-over-year GDP growth of approximately +4% for Q3 [3][8]. Productivity Gains - The US economy's resilience is attributed to ongoing structural productivity gains, with non-financial corporate productivity increasing by +5.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, driven by a rise in output per hour [6][9]. Foreign Investment in US Treasuries - Foreign holdings of US Treasuries reached a record high of $9.16 trillion in July, indicating continued foreign interest despite concerns about potential divestment, with private entities increasing their holdings [11][12]. Structural Economic Advantages - The US maintains structural economic advantages characterized by a culture of innovation, strong intellectual property protection, deep capital markets, and the dollar's reserve currency status, which are expected to persist regardless of political cycles [7][13].
US Treasury Secretary Bessent praises Bullard in search for Fed chief
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 11:28
Core Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is actively searching for a new Federal Reserve chairman and has had a productive discussion with former Fed official James Bullard [1][2] - Bullard, who previously served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, expressed his interest in the chair position and emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status, controlling inflation, and preserving the Fed's independence [2] - Bessent indicated that if inflation is perceived as a problem, the administration would support interest rate hikes from the Fed, and he anticipates a decrease in inflation in the near future [3] Group 1 - Bessent had a two-hour session with Bullard, highlighting Bullard's expertise in monetary policy and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve [1] - Bullard's priorities for the Fed chair position include defending the dollar's reserve status and ensuring low and stable inflation [2] - The administration is benefiting from revenue generated by new tariffs, with Bessent noting that many exporters are absorbing these tariffs [3]