Core Insights - The US property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector is projected to maintain strong underwriting profitability through 2026, despite challenges such as social inflation, slow economic growth, and increasing competition [1] Industry Outlook - Fitch Ratings has issued a 'neutral' sector outlook for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025, which was aided by a benign hurricane season and favorable reserve development [2] - The combined ratio is expected to rise to 96%-97% in 2026 from a projected 94% in 2025, indicating a return to more normalized conditions [2] Financial Performance - The adjusted industry return on surplus is anticipated to decrease from 10.1% in 2025 to 9.1% in 2026, with net investment income facing modest pressure as interest rates decline [3] - The net written premiums to policyholder surplus ratio is estimated at 0.8x for year-end 2025, indicating a stable capital position [10] Market Dynamics - Pricing in commercial lines is moderating to low single-digit percentage increases, while personal auto rates have slowed after 30 consecutive quarters of double-digit increases [5][6] - Renewal premium rates are still increasing in underperforming segments like commercial automobile and excess liability, while the property market is entering a softening phase [7] Claims and Legal Environment - Reserve adequacy remains a concern, particularly in longer tail casualty lines, due to large settlements and litigation abuse impacting claims severity [4] - The industry faces headwinds from increasing competition, geopolitical uncertainty, and a challenging legal environment, which may test pricing discipline and claims management [3] Reinsurance Market - Primary insurers are expected to benefit from softening reinsurance rates in 2026, although reinsurers are likely to maintain steady terms and conditions [8] M&A Activity - The excess capital and easing interest rates are projected to drive an increase in M&A activity in 2026, as insurers seek to diversify or exit underperforming lines [10]