Reservoir Appraisal
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Murphy Oil(MUR) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-29 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a production rate of 182,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding guidance, while the expected production for 2026 is projected to decrease to 171,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [8][10] - Lease operating expenses were reduced by 20% year-over-year, maintaining a range of $10-$12 per barrel [5][10] - The company reported an 80% success rate in exploration efforts for 2025 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Eagle Ford Shale production is expected to remain flat in 2026 with a 25% reduction in capital spending [8][10] - The appraisal results from the Hai Su Vang, Golden Sea Lion field in Vietnam indicated a significant resource potential, with 429 feet of net oil pay found [6][10] - The company plans to continue its focused exploration and appraisal program in 2026, including two appraisal wells in Vietnam and two exploration wells in Côte d'Ivoire [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is expanding its exploration portfolio with new blocks in the Gulf of America and has entered offshore Morocco [9][10] - The average reserve life in the industry is noted to be 12 years, with a proactive approach to securing new blocks in diverse basins [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to make strategic investments in development, exploration, and appraisal activities in the Gulf of America, Vietnam, and Côte d'Ivoire to enhance shareholder value [6][10] - The focus for 2026 is on intentional investments that set the groundwork for long-term growth, despite challenges from unpredictable market conditions and softening commodity prices [7][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges of a softening commodity price environment but emphasizes the company's preparedness to withstand downturns [7][10] - The company expects modest growth in production profiles, particularly from its growing Vietnam business, while maintaining a focus on operational efficiency [41][42] Other Important Information - The company reported a 103% overall reserve replacement on proved reserves, maintaining a solid level of reserves around 700 million barrels [82] - The royalty rate for the Tupper Montney asset is projected to increase from 4.6% in 2025 to approximately 8.4% in 2026 due to rising gas prices [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the natural flow rate for the Hai Su Vang 2X stem test? - The test produced 12,000 barrels per day, which is not constrained by facilities but reflects the reservoir's capability [15][18] Question: What portion of the 2026 CapEx is considered flexible? - The company has significant investments that will proceed regardless of oil prices, but there is flexibility to reduce capital spending by about 10% if necessary [20][23] Question: What was the failure mechanism at Civette and its impact on future prospects? - The Civette well found oil pay but not in commercial quantities, and the learnings will not negatively impact the probability of success for Caracal and Bubal [29][30] Question: When is first oil expected from Hai Su Vang? - First oil is anticipated in 2031, with peak production likely by 2033 [104] Question: What are the plans for the new blocks in Morocco? - The company plans to reprocess existing seismic data and assess prospectivity with a low expenditure of around $5 million over the next three years [75]