Core Insights - The number of Bitcoin whales, defined as wallets holding at least 100 BTC, is increasing after reaching a two-year low, coinciding with a slight rebound in Bitcoin's price following a period of decline [1][3][5] - Analysts express caution regarding the early signs of bullish momentum, suggesting they may not indicate a definitive price rebound for Bitcoin [2] Whale Activity - Data from Santiment indicates a 0.47% increase in wallets holding at least 100 BTC since November 11, adding 91 new wallets [3] - Despite the growth in mid-sized whale wallets, larger wallets (those holding over 1,000 BTC) have been decreasing, particularly as Bitcoin's price fell below $90,000 [4][7] - Wallets with more than 10,000 BTC reduced their holdings by approximately 1.5% in October, indicating a trend of larger holders trimming their positions [10] Market Dynamics - Citi researchers estimate that around $1 billion in weekly spot inflows is necessary to raise Bitcoin's price by about 4%, highlighting the liquidity needed to stabilize prices [8] - The decline in whale balances does not necessarily indicate aggressive selling but suggests a reduced influence of major players in the market [9] Price Pressure - As of the reporting time, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $87,300, reflecting a nearly 5% decrease over the past week [11] - Analysts note that short-term holders are capitulating at an aggressive pace, which may lead to a higher binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric [11] - The ability of Bitcoin to maintain the $80,000–$83,000 demand region is deemed critical to avoid further price breakdowns [13]

🚨 NEW: Wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin have risen by 91 since November 11th, a retail capitulation that typically signals long-term bullish momentum, per Santiment. https://t.co/pluNGWHZjk ...

📊 Bitcoin's sentiment across social media has officially dipped to its lowest point since December 11, 2023. According to bullish vs. bearish comments on X, Reddit, Telegram, and others, retail is capitulating and panic selling at a significant level we haven't seen in 2 years. https://t.co/4Hi0iTgsHO ...

Market Sentiment and Analysis - The crypto market is currently experiencing uncertainty, with concerns about a potential alt season, market topping, or the start of a bear market [1][2][3] - The market is showing signs of capitulation, with fear levels approaching extreme levels, which historically can indicate a market bottom [6][7][8] - Many altcoins are in oversold territory, aligning with the high fear levels in the market [9][10] - XRP is showing relative strength compared to Ethereum, but could still see further price declines [3][4][10] - The market has been selling off for approximately 72 days, leading to time and price action capitulation [11][12] Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests the four-year crypto cycle may be extending to a five-year cycle, with a potential peak in early 2026 [13][19][20] - This aligns with the liquidity cycle, which is expected to peak around the first quarter of 2026 [16][17][29] - The market has changed significantly with institutional adoption, regulations, and the potential for altcoin ETFs [30][31][39] - Despite these changes, a bear market is still anticipated, likely marking the last typical cycle before utility becomes the primary driver [36] - The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and increasing adoption are expected to drive further market expansion [35][38]