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Agree Realty(ADC) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-22 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a core FFO per share of $1.09 for Q3, an increase of 8.4% year-over-year, while AFFO per share rose 7.2% to $1.10, exceeding consensus by $0.02 [13][16] - The full-year AFFO per share guidance was raised to a range of $4.31 to $4.33, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 4.4% at the midpoint [13][16] - The company maintained a conservative payout ratio of 70% for both core FFO and AFFO per share [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3, the company invested over $450 million in 110 high-quality retail net lease properties, including the acquisition of 90 assets for over $400 million [6][8] - The weighted average cap rate for acquisitions was 7.2%, with a weighted average lease term of 10.7 years [8] - Investment-grade retailers accounted for 70% of the annualized base rent acquired, marking the highest percentage this year [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has invested nearly $1.2 billion across 257 retail net lease properties in 40 states and 29 retail sectors during the first nine months of the year [8][9] - The occupancy rate remained strong at 99.7%, with investment-grade exposure at 67% [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is increasing its full-year 2025 investment guidance to a range of $1.5 to $1.65 billion, representing a 65% increase from last year's investment volume [4][6] - The company aims to achieve a medium-term goal of $250 million in annual commenced projects, with a significant increase in development and developer funding spend compared to prior years [9][10] - The company is focused on partnering with best-in-class retailers and private developers to add high-quality real estate to its portfolio [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the current investment pace and does not foresee any slowdown in 2025 [22] - The company noted that the middle-class consumer is trading down to its tenant base, benefiting from the current economic environment [66] - Management highlighted a strong pipeline for acquisitions and development projects, indicating robust growth potential [32][60] Other Important Information - The company received an A-minus issuer rating from Fitch Ratings, which is expected to reduce the interest rate on its 2029 term loan by five basis points [5][16] - Total liquidity stood at $1.9 billion, with no material debt maturities until 2028 [5][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk through the timing and settlement of the forward equity? - Management indicated that approximately 6 million shares of forward equity contracts mature in Q4, with plans to settle those shares during that period [22] Question: Are you seeing any factors that could slow the acquisition pace? - Management stated that there are no visible factors that would slow down the acquisition pace in 2025, despite fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury yield [22] Question: How do you view the current cap rates and competition? - Management noted that they have not seen a material change in cap rates year-to-date and emphasized their differentiated approach to transactions [26] Question: What is the anticipated impact of credit loss on guidance? - Management reported a credit loss of about 21 basis points in Q3 and anticipates approximately 25 basis points for the year [33] Question: How do you view the current consumer environment? - Management indicated that the majority of categories they invest in are experiencing positive flow-through, particularly benefiting from consumers trading down [66]