Core Thesis - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is experiencing a significant stock decline of approximately 43% from all-time highs due to slowing same-store sales, weak transaction growth, and rising costs, alongside broader macroeconomic pressures [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a -4% year-over-year decline in comparable-restaurant sales in the most recent quarter, with decreasing customer traffic only partially mitigated by price increases [2] - Valuation metrics indicate a forward P/E of 29.85x and a forward free cash flow yield of 2.75%, suggesting the stock is trading at a historical discount [5] Guidance and Market Reaction - Guidance has been revised downward, with same-store sales expected to be flat for 2024 due to softer consumer demand and margin pressures from inflation and labor costs [3] - Despite these challenges, some market reactions may be overdone, as Chipotle maintains strong brand loyalty and premium positioning [3] Growth Drivers - Growth drivers include ongoing store expansion, Chipotlane drive-thru and pickup formats, menu innovation, and international partnerships, which provide avenues for revenue and traffic recovery [4] - Investments in digital ordering, loyalty programs, and back-of-house technology aim to enhance efficiency, margins, and repeat business [4] Long-term Outlook - Base-case projections indicate a 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) potential, with a fair value around $43.82, implying roughly 12% upside from current levels [5] - The stock presents a potential opportunity to invest in a high-quality, operationally resilient business with a long-term growth runway if recent headwinds prove transitory [5]