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Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-09-19 17:45
Core Thesis - Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC) is viewed positively despite significant share price decline, with a current trading price of $7.25 and trailing and forward P/E ratios of 27.88 and 1.76 respectively [1][2] Company Overview - BHC is a diversified healthcare company involved in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with operations in eye care, gastroenterology, neurology, dermatology, and aesthetics [2] - The company has experienced an 80% decline in share price since July 2021, attributed to higher interest rates, policy uncertainty, and post-COVID overcapacity [2] Financial Performance - BHC generates stable cash flows with a five-year revenue CAGR of 3.5%, LTM EBITDA margins of 31.5%, and a free cash flow yield of 35.8% [3] - The company has a significant leverage issue, with $20 billion in net debt against $3.1 billion in EBITDA, leading to steep discounts of 66.5% on TEV/EBITDA and 31.5% on TEV/sales compared to peers [3] Recent Developments - The 2022 spin-off of Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) resulted in a $630 million debt reduction, and BHC retains an 87.5% stake in BLCO valued at $4.8 billion, nearly double its market cap [3] - A $6 billion maturity wall is due in 2028, and the 2029 patent expiry of the $1.9 billion IBS drug Xifaxan is raising solvency concerns [4] Market Sentiment and Risks - A recent acquisition by Paulson Capital of a 34 million-share block at a 19.8% premium indicates potential asset monetization, which could help in deleveraging [4] - Scenario modeling suggests a 39% probability of bankruptcy versus a 20% chance of significant gains, indicating a highly asymmetric risk/reward profile [5]