Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has increased nearly 8% since last Friday, recovering from recent lows near $80,500, as market odds for a Fed rate cut in December have jumped [1] - The price of BTC traded at $86,947 at the time of writing, reflecting a 1.07% increase over the past day [2] Monetary Policy Impact - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with a 90% chance at the start of November, dropping to 30%, and rebounding to over 70% [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December 10 meeting, following a previous cut in October [4] - The Fed's announcement to end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, signals rising liquidity and lower borrowing costs, which could strengthen demand for risk assets like Bitcoin [5] On-Chain Data Analysis - On-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be nearing a potential bottom, with a significant surge in BTC being moved off exchanges, historically a positive market sentiment indicator [6] - Swissblock Technologies has identified a noticeable decline in its Risk-Off Signal, indicating that the worst of the capitulation may be ending, supporting the notion that Bitcoin is forming a new bottom [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the next week is critical for Bitcoin, as continued fading of selling pressure could signal a reliable bottom, often marked by a second selling wave that is weaker than the first [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant outflows, totaling $1.22 billion for the week of November 17 to November 21, and $4.349 billion over the past month, marking the second-largest four-week decline on record [1] - The market is observing a potential year-end rally, with analysts suggesting Bitcoin may be forming a base after recent sell-offs [4][5] ETF Performance - The recent heavy selling in Bitcoin ETFs was influenced by a shift from inflows to outflows, primarily due to market conditions and trader behavior [2] - The largest recorded outflow occurred from mid-February to mid-March, amounting to $4.806 billion [1] Bitcoin Price Movement - Bitcoin's price dropped to around $82,000 but has since recovered to approximately $87,221, reflecting a 1.8% daily gain, although it remains down 21% over the past month [3] - Despite price fluctuations, Bitcoin's market dominance is near 59%, indicating a trend where traders often shift funds from altcoins back into Bitcoin during market pullbacks [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts from Swissblock suggest that the easing of the Risk-Off signal indicates reduced selling pressure, with the worst phase potentially over [5] - Historical patterns show that a second, smaller wave of sales often leads to buyers regaining control, hinting at possible consolidation for Bitcoin in the near term [5] Trading Behavior - Long-term holders are showing heavy selling activity, typical during strong market phases when early investors lock in profits [6] - Newer buyers are entering the market, absorbing the coins sold by long-term holders, which may indicate a shift in market dynamics [6][7]