Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) experienced three consecutive losses due to a mix of Big Tech volatility and economic data, with Oracle's AI-triggered drawdown and Micron Technology's earnings impacting the market [1] - Despite the losses, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and SPX managed to achieve weekly gains [1] Upcoming Economic Reports - A few delayed economic reports, including third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, are expected to be released next week [2] - Historical data suggests that the Friday after Christmas often yields positive returns, indicating a potentially impressive week ahead [2] Historical Performance Data - Since 1950, the SPX has averaged a weekly return of 0.55% during Christmas week, with positive returns occurring almost 70% of the time [3][4] - This year, Christmas falls on a Thursday, a scenario that has occurred only nine times since 1950, with the following Friday averaging a return rate of 0.46% [3][5] Underperforming Stocks - CME Group (CME) is identified as the worst performer during Christmas week, failing to beat SPX returns for at least a decade, with an average return of -0.99% [7][8] - Old Dominion (ODFL) is the only other stock that has not succeeded in beating the SPX during Christmas week in the last 10 years [7] CME Group Analysis - CME Group's stock has struggled, showing a 16% increase in 2025 but a 4% decline in December [8] - The stock has not maintained breakouts above $280, and the 10-week moving average is adding pressure [8] - There is potential for downgrades as eight brokerages currently have a "buy" or better rating, which could lead to further headwinds if bullish sentiment declines [9] Options Trading Strategy - Current options trading conditions for CME Group may present an opportunity, as its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 18% is higher than just 14% of readings from the last year [10] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) indicates that CME has consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in, suggesting a premium-selling strategy could be advantageous for options traders [10]

Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of "Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward Ratio" (W&A Publishing/Trader's Press).Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] - He is the author of "Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward Ratio" [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of individual investor sentiment and market analysis, highlighting the role of Charles Rotblut as a key figure in providing insights in these areas [1]. Group 1 - Charles Rotblut is the editor of the AAII Journal, which serves as the flagship publication for The American Association of Individual Investors [1]. - The article emphasizes the significance of understanding individual investor sentiment in making informed investment decisions [1]. - It mentions that Charles Rotblut is also the author of a book focused on how savvy investors can create wealth through understanding the risk-reward ratio [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment [1] - The AAII Journal serves as a flagship publication for The American Association of Individual Investors [1] - Rotblut is also the author of a book that emphasizes the importance of the risk-reward ratio in investing [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] - He is the author of "Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward Ratio" [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment [1] - The AAII Journal serves as a flagship publication for The American Association of Individual Investors [1] - Rotblut is also the author of a book that emphasizes the importance of the risk-reward ratio in investing [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment [1] - The AAII Journal serves as a flagship publication for The American Association of Individual Investors [1] - Rotblut is also the author of a book that emphasizes the importance of the risk-reward ratio in investing [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] - He is the author of "Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward Ratio" [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the role of Charles Rotblut, CFA, as the editor of the AAII Journal, focusing on individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] Group 1 - Charles Rotblut provides insights into individual investor sentiment and market analysis [1] - He is the author of "Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward Ratio" [1]