August 12, 2025 09:55 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy How Much Risk Premium Is in USD? Risk premium has been the chief driver of the post-Liberation Day USD moves. We estimate that risk premium has roughly halved from its post-Liberation Day peak to about 6-8%, but there is ample scope for it to return to, and exceed, those levels, generating a weaker USD. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M August 12, 2025 09:55 AM GMT | | Global Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | G10 FX Strategy | Morgan Stanley & ...

导读：当上证指数重新站上3600点时，基金持有人的需求又会发生什么变化呢？通过和身边大部分朋友沟通，我们发现这一届的持有人变得理智冷静 很多。大家不再追求牛市的高收益，但也不满足持续下滑的理财收益率。他们希望获得回撤可控下的收益增强。 那么什么样的固收+产品，能够满足用户的需求？我们认为，用户需要的不是高收益产品，而是在较低回撤下的较高收益，争取产品净值的持续新 高。站在这个视角下，我们找到了东方红资产管理的余剑峰。 截至今年6月末，余剑峰在管的3只产品成立以来净值增长率均为正。和许多人不一样，他的底层是一个"风险管理者"。无论是组合的资产配置，还是 组合内部的阿尔法策略，都是以风险管理作为最重要的考量。 在资产配置层面，余剑峰并不是简单的做股债混合比例，而是根据两者的相关性变化，进行动态的调整。在宏观环境的变化下，始终给持有人相对稳 定的产品波动率。 在阿尔法策略上，无论是股票的30个行业划分，还是债券的久期策略，或者是转债的期权套利策略，余剑峰都是从把控风险的角度出发。这也使得他 的阿尔法比较稳定，不同阿尔法策略之间的相关性也较低。 余剑峰的另一个不同是，坚信资产定价的科学性。相比通过工作慢慢形成对投资的 ...

The VIX volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February. For more, let's bring in Mandy Shu, head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you. Great to be here.It's not just the VIX. I mean, volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you.Yeah, to me, I think it's a sign that what we're seeing in the markets is very much fundamentally driven, right. The fact that equities keep making new all-ti ...

>> THE U.S. MILITARY CARRIED OUT PERSISTENT STRIKES ON THE THREE KEY NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN THE IRANIAN REGIME. >> WE ARE NOT DRAGGING AMERICA INTO A WAR AND WE ARE LEAVING IT TO THE PRESIDENT AND HIS TEAM. >> THE BOMBING OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES BY THE UNITED STATES MARKS A TURN IN A REGION THAT IS ALREADY REALLY -- REELING.DANI: IT IS 5:00 A. M. IN NEW YORK CITY.I AM DANI BURGER WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." IRAN VOWS TO EVALUATE AND KEEPS UP ON ISRAEL FOLLOWING THE U.S. ATTACK ON ITS NUCLEAR FACILITIES. THE W ...

Geopolitical Risks & Market Impact - U S airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have heightened geopolitical risks, leading to concerns about potential Iranian retaliation and supply disruptions in the Middle East [1][2][5][16] - Oil prices initially spiked nearly 6%, but gains were later pared down to 1 4%, with Brent crude trading at $78 per barrel, reflecting market uncertainty regarding Iran's response [4][16] - The market is focused on whether Iran will disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for approximately 1/5 of the world's crude oil output [1][17] - Risk-off sentiment is observed across equity markets, with European futures down by 0 5% and similar trends in Asia, while the U S dollar gains amid concerns about escalation [2][57] - Gold prices are slightly weaker, down 0 2%, despite its traditional safe-haven status, indicating the primary focus remains on oil price volatility and potential retaliation [5][58] Potential Iranian Responses - Iran reserves the right to protect its people and sovereignty, with the possibility of a targeted response, such as striking U S military sites within the GCC [9][11] - Disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is another option, but it could be self-destructive for Iran's oil exports [12] - Iran may consider leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty to signal its resolve to develop nuclear weapons [12] U S Objectives & International Reactions - The U S claims the strikes significantly set back Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, but independent analysis is pending [6] - The U S asserts the mission was a precise attack on nuclear sites, not an attack on the Iranian people or a regime change move [6][31] - European leaders are calling for de-escalation and diplomacy, emphasizing that Iran should never be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons [50][51] - There are concerns among the international community about whether the U S airstrikes constitute a preemptive or preventative strike under international law [52][53] Long-Term Implications & Analysis - The location of 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in Iran is unknown, raising concerns about the effectiveness of military action alone in eliminating the nuclear threat [15][37] - The debate continues regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with some arguing it capped Iran's nuclear ambitions, while others criticize its expiration date and failure to address ballistic missiles and terrorism [41][42] - Some analysts suggest the U S should support regime change in Iran, but emphasize it must come from the Iranian people, not external intervention [44][45][46]

All right, welcome back. Let's talk energy because tensions remain high as Israel targets Iran's missile production sites. Oil and natural gas prices have been rising over the past week on concerns that shipping may be hindered or even shut down in the ultra critical Persian Gulf and Straight of Hormuz.But here is a story you are not hearing much about elsewhere. Even if shipping remains the same as it is today and the ships, they are still flowing, you may still see energy prices that you pay go up. Let's ...