Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility this week, with multiple major products showing sharp fluctuations, driven by supply-demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced substantial corrections, while agricultural products like soybean meal and soybean oil continued to show weakness [1] - Coking coal strengthened due to expectations of production cuts in Indonesia, while lithium carbonate continued its downward trend under pressure from inventory changes and the end of pre-holiday stocking [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The precious metals market was the most volatile sector this week, with gold futures dropping over 4% and silver plummeting more than 27%, marking the largest weekly decline of the year [2] - This correction was primarily due to a rapid retreat of risk aversion, as previous premiums driven by Middle Eastern tensions and global central bank gold purchases quickly dissipated following signs of easing in US-Iran relations [2] - Investors rushed to close their risk-hedging positions, pushing prices downward, while a strengthening US dollar further pressured dollar-denominated precious metals [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices fell as geopolitical risks eased, with Shanghai aluminum futures coming under downward pressure as concerns over regional supply diminished [3] - The Middle East accounts for nearly 10% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity, but the actual supply disruption risk is lower than market expectations due to differences in production structures and logistics [3] - As tensions cooled, the "risk premium" in aluminum prices was gradually erased, although domestic alumina maintenance led to short-term supply tightening [3] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector remained weak, with soybean meal and soybean oil experiencing significant declines, primarily due to reinforced expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America [4] - The USDA's January report raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 178 million tons, a record high, with some institutions estimating it could reach 182 million tons [4] - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, significantly ahead of last year's pace, leading to increased concerns about the influx of new season soybeans [4] Group 5: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures continued their downward trend, with market logic returning to fundamentals [5] - Weekly data showed a decrease in social inventory by 1,414 tons, but a clear structural divergence was evident, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,007 tons while upstream decreased by 831 tons [5] - The market reflected that terminal demand had not effectively recovered, and with pre-holiday stocking largely completed, the market's pricing for first-quarter destocking expectations was nearly finalized [5]

2月3日，贵金属市场近期遭遇了历史上罕见的流动性冲击，上周五的暴跌被视为市场情绪的分水岭。 OEXN表示，这场剧烈震荡的催化剂并非基本面的突然恶化，而是由于美联储未来领导层人选的确定， 使得长期困扰金融市场的政治不确定性瞬间消除。当市场预期的靴子落地，此前积累的大量避险溢价开 始快速回吐。 关于美联储主席提名对行情的影响，OEXN认为，具体人选是谁其实并非核心，关键在于"不确定性"这 一变量被移除了方程。虽然凯文·沃什被认为立场强硬，但美联储作为集体决策机构，其政策连续性依 然存在。然而，此前黄金市场已处于严重的投机过热状态。统计数据表示，大量对行业缺乏深度了解的 非专业投资者近期疯狂涌入，导致多头头寸过度拥挤，这也使得黄金在回调时缺乏足够的支撑垫。 白银市场的表现则再次印证了其高风险属性。OEXN表示，白银在此类极端行情中往往会陷入流动性枯 竭的困境，甚至被部分资深分析师视为"死亡陷阱"。随着技术性抛盘的介入，贵金属的跌势被进一步放 大。目前，技术分析的指引意义已远超基本面。斐波那契回撤位表示，黄金的下一个关键技术目标位见 于4225美元，而白银则可能下探至66美元水平。 2月3日，贵金属市场近期遭遇了历史 ...

Silver is no stranger to volatility at all. It's a smaller market. It is quite deep in its own right, but it's a much smaller market than gold.And what you will tend to find is that when there's a change in trend. Doesn't matter whether it's into a bullish or bearish phase. Silver will always move by a greater degree than gold does today.Generally speaking, as a rule of thumb, if gold moves either up or down by x percent, let's say, then silver will typically move by two X or even two and a half X and somet ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum - Japan Rate Reset: Implications Across Macro Markets Company/Industry Involved - **Company**: Morgan Stanley - **Industry**: Global Macro Markets, with a focus on Japan's economic outlook and monetary policy Key Points and Arguments Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise the policy rate in **June 2026**, with upward revisions already made as of **December 2026** [6][60] - Fiscal fundamentals in Japan are solid, but there is concern over the lack of credible and timely official fiscal estimates [60] - Real GDP growth forecasts for fiscal 2025 are revised to **+0.8% to +0.9%**, and for fiscal 2026 to **+0.8% to +1.0%** [6] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The BoJ is likely to slow its JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) reduction pace in **June 2026** [10][60] - There is expected upward pressure on term premiums in Japan due to fiscal policy concerns and the BoJ potentially falling behind the curve [60] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading at a premium to fair value, influenced by Japan's fiscal and inflation outlook [19][60] Equities and Earnings - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish stance on the Japan banking sector, with expectations of strong earnings per share (EPS) revisions [60] - The consensus 12-month forward P/E target for Japan is forecasted at **15.0x** [41][60] - Small-cap stocks have recently underperformed, but resilient fundamentals are still present [60] Asset Allocation Strategy - Morgan Stanley prefers global equities over core fixed income, favoring the US and Japan over Europe and emerging markets [46][60] - The underweight in core fixed income is primarily through credit allocation rather than government bonds, as technicals around issuance are weaker in corporate credit [60] European Market Insights - Upcoming inflation data in Europe may lead to two **25 basis point cuts** by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2026 [24][60] - The issuance of European government bonds has been well absorbed, with improving syndicate statistics [32][60] Risk Premium and Market Dynamics - Changes in risk premium are expected to drive the next leg of USD movements, with a more USD-negative risk premium anticipated [19][60] - The correlation between the Japanese yen and the TOPIX index is becoming less negative, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and stock performance [50][60] Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data and its implications for monetary policy and market dynamics [60] - Analysts express caution regarding the potential for large market moves due to shifts in risk premiums and fiscal confidence in Japan [60]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a correction, with a maximum daily decline of nearly 2%, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [2][7]. Macroeconomic Summary - As of January 10, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 198,000, significantly below market expectations of 215,000 and the previous value of 208,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [2][7]. - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January has decreased to around 5%, as the Kansas City Fed President stated there is currently no reason to lower rates, which could hinder progress in controlling inflation and negatively impact the labor market [2][7]. Market Dynamics - Trump's announcement to temporarily refrain from imposing tariffs on key minerals like copper has reduced the risk premium previously associated with copper prices, weakening short-term upward price momentum [2][7]. - The geopolitical situation between the U.S. and Iran, along with volatility in precious metals, is contributing to instability in high copper prices [2][7]. Domestic Market Conditions - Continuous registration of copper stocks in both domestic and international markets indicates pressure from domestic hedging funds, suggesting a weakening of the domestic fundamental outlook during the off-season [2][7]. - If there are no new reductions in supply, there is an expectation of price adjustments for copper at current high levels [2][7]. Supply Chain Insights - Domestic TC (treatment and refining charges) quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining a tight supply sentiment, which serves as a strong fundamental support factor [2][7]. - Ongoing negotiations regarding the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile have failed, leading to continued strikes that heighten market concerns over supply tightness [2][7]. - Long-term supply tightness issues persist, necessitating cautious attention to recent market fluctuations [2][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of stock investments in relation to reference rates and risk premiums, highlighting that a stock's performance can underperform the reference rate significantly when dividends are considered [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Performance Metrics - The stock underperformed the reference rate by 13% when including a 2% dividend, resulting in a negative equity risk premium of 15% [1]. - Risk premiums can be either positive or negative, reflecting the uncertainty and potential for losses associated with risky assets like stocks [2]. Group 2: Index Return Types - The article outlines three main components that contribute to an index's return profile: price changes, periodic income, and risk premiums [3][5]. - Four primary types of index returns are defined: Price Return (PR), Total Return (TR), Net Total Return (NTR), and Excess Return (ER), each providing a unique perspective on index performance [4]. - The Total Return Index includes all return components, while the Price Return Index focuses solely on price changes, excluding periodic income [6][8]. Group 3: Index Construction and Use Cases - Nasdaq can create different types of indexes based on the desired return profile, including Price Return Index, Total Return Index, and Excess Return Index [6][7]. - The relationship between the reference rate and periodic income is crucial for understanding index performance and its applications in financial products [5][10]. - Funded and unfunded indexes are differentiated based on whether the underlying assets are purchased upfront, affecting the exposure to the reference rate [9].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal research and due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of complex financial instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are encouraged to consult competent advisors and consider their individual financial situations before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The content highlights the high risk associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, noting that they are complex instruments that can lead to significant financial losses [1]. - It advises users to fully understand how these financial instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1]. - The website may include advertisements and promotional content, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties [1].

Measure the trade‑offRisk premium helps you weigh reward versus risk.Read more 👇https://t.co/zrHohOrkm3 ...

Risk Assessment - JPMorgan's Daniel Pinto argues that the risk premium on African assets is "justified" [1] Market Perspective - The statement "It is what it is" reflects a potentially pragmatic or resigned view of the current situation regarding African assets [1] Source of Information - Bloomberg News Deputy Editor-in-Chief Reto Gregori interviewed Daniel Pinto at the Africa Business Summit [1]

The US junk bond rally came to a halt on Friday with the biggest one-day loss in six months, as the risk premium surged to near a four-month peak of 304 basis points https://t.co/N6KTjkj9xl ...