Summary of Agilon Health Conference Call Company Overview - Agilon Health is a value-based care company focused on primary care, operating in multiple states with partnerships with primary care physicians [6][7] - The company has entered into 20-year partnerships with around 2,200 primary care physicians across 12 states and 30 markets [6] Core Business Model - Agilon Health operates under capitated arrangements with payers, taking a percentage of premiums and being responsible for total healthcare costs for its members [7] - The company serves approximately 117,000 members in the ACO REACH program, achieving gross savings of $150 million in 2023, with cost trends 300 basis points below the Medicare benchmark [7][8] Performance Metrics - The company reports a 20% to 30% reduction in hospital admissions per thousand, lower emergency room admissions, and higher quality ratings (star scores greater than 4) [8] - The enhanced data pipeline launched in Q1 is expected to significantly improve operational efficiency and cost visibility [8][14] Strategic Focus and Challenges - In 2024, Agilon Health doubled its size but faced challenges due to flat macro cost trends and rates, leading to a narrowed focus on profitability for 2025 [12][13] - The company has intentionally slowed growth to prioritize profitability, with a focus on ensuring adequate compensation for risks taken [12][13] Part D Risk Management - The company has reduced its exposure to Part D risk from 66% in 2024 to less than 30% in 2025, with expectations to lower it further in 2026 [13][23] - The removal of Part D risk is a strategic priority due to its volatility and financial impact [22][23] Data Pipeline and Cost Visibility - The new data pipeline allows for member-level revenue and cost detail, enhancing the company's ability to predict medical costs and risk scores [19][20] - Approximately 72% of members were integrated into the data pipeline by the end of Q2, with ongoing efforts to expand this [17] ACO REACH Program Success - Agilon Health is one of the largest participants in the ACO REACH program, delivering superior savings and quality results through its partnership model [34][35] - The program's structure reduces variability and enhances performance compared to Medicare Advantage [34] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a more favorable macro backdrop for 2026, with expectations of improved profitability driven by better rates and cost control measures [41][52] - Agilon Health is focused on clinical programs and risk adjustment strategies to enhance financial performance [48][49] Key Takeaways for Investors - Agilon Health operates in a long-cycle business, with financial improvements expected to materialize over time [49] - The company is positioned for meaningful profitability growth from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on quality performance and cost management [52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was reported at $2,900,000,000, representing a 29% year-over-year increase [5][18] - The medical loss ratio (MLR) increased by 12 points year-over-year to 91.1%, primarily due to an overall increase in average market morbidity [5][19] - The SG&A ratio improved by 90 basis points year-over-year to 18.7% [6][21] - The loss from operations was $230,000,000, a decrease of $298,000,000 year-over-year, while the adjusted EBITDA loss was $199,000,000, a decrease of $34,000,000 year-over-year [6][22] - The company reaffirmed its updated 2025 guidance, projecting total revenues between $12,000,000,000 and $12,200,000,000 and a loss from operations between $200,000,000 and $300,000,000 [6][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Membership grew to over 2,000,000, an increase of 28% year-over-year, driven by solid retention and above-market growth during open enrollment [19] - The second quarter MLR was impacted by a $316,000,000 increase in risk adjustment payable for 2025 due to higher ACA marketplace morbidity [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The latest risk adjustment data indicated a meaningful market-wide increase in morbidity in 2025, affecting all carriers with increases in mid to high single digits [7] - The company expects double-digit rate increases in the market for 2026 to address current morbidity pressures [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on managing expenses and optimizing operations through technology and AI-driven efficiencies, aiming to eliminate approximately $60,000,000 in administrative costs for 2026 [10][11] - Strategic acquisitions include an individual market brokerage and a direct enrollment technology platform to enhance capabilities in the consumer marketplace [12][13] - The company is launching a new ICRA product in partnership with Hy Vee Inc., targeting employers and employees in Des Moines, Iowa [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the individual market will stabilize in 2026 and expects to return to profitability in that year [15][26] - The company is taking corrective actions to ensure a strong position for profitability next year, despite current market challenges [18][26] Other Important Information - The company has a strong capital position with approximately $5,400,000,000 in cash and investments, including $579,000,000 in excess capital [22][90] - The company is reducing its workforce in the second half of 2025 to solidify its profitability position for 2026 [26][85] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 free cash flow and risk adjustment payable - Management indicated a strong capital position and that the majority of expected losses would be absorbed by excess capital [30] Question: Long-term targets for 2027 - Management reaffirmed the 5% margin target but stated that adjustments may be made after assessing the pricing season [32] Question: Multiyear earnings levers - Management highlighted ongoing opportunities to improve medical costs and administrative efficiencies [38] Question: Potential risk pool deterioration - Management expressed confidence in their current position and noted that they have factored risks into their pricing for 2026 [47] Question: Market stabilization assumptions for 2026 - Management built conservative assumptions into their guidance, expecting to improve margins and return to profitability [51] Question: Membership shifts and retention - Management noted that improved membership retention and lower lapse rates contributed to membership growth [105]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue for Q2 2025 of $1.4 billion, down from $1.48 billion in Q2 2024, primarily due to lower risk adjustment contributions and unfavorable developments in Part D costs [29][30] - Medical margin for Q2 2025 was negative $53 million, compared to positive $106 million in Q2 2024, driven by underperformance in the burden of illness program [30][33] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was negative $83 million, compared to negative $3 million in Q2 2024, reflecting the impact of lower risk adjustments and unfavorable prior period developments [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Medicare Advantage membership at the end of Q2 2025 was 498,000, down from 513,000 in Q2 2024, reflecting a measured approach to membership growth [28] - ACO REACH membership in Q2 2025 was 116,000, down from 132,000 in 2024, aligning with expectations [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has reduced its exposure to Medicare Part D, with less than 30% of its membership carrying Part D risk in 2025, and aims to further decrease this as it enters 2026 [35] - The company expects its same geography growth rate to align with the broader industry for 2025 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving contract economics and bid visibility with payers, enhancing its data platform, and reducing variability in its business [36] - The leadership transition aims to drive improved execution and strengthen relationships critical to future success [10][11] - The company is committed to enhancing performance and Agilent's position for sustainable value creation, particularly with the improved Medicare reimbursement model expected to take effect next year [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that 2025 is a transition year with industry complexities and headwinds that were more acute than previously expected, leading to underperformance [8][9] - The company is optimistic about realizing the benefits of strategic initiatives in 2026, despite current challenges [7][36] Other Important Information - The company has withdrawn its previously issued full-year 2025 financial guidance due to ongoing market uncertainty [35] - The leadership team is recalibrating the organization's culture to emphasize urgency, accountability, and performance [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on potential positive PYD in Q3 and growth rate into 2026 - Management indicated that there was a small amount of favorable development on quality programs, but the most significant pieces of development were unfavorable, particularly related to risk adjustment [40][41][42] Question: Insights on call trends and cost trends - Cost trends for Q1 were around 6%, and Q2 trends were consistent with Q1, but July data was not yet complete [46][47] Question: Commentary on 2026 class and glide path strategy - Management confirmed that growth for 2026 is under review and will be highly selective based on current business performance [59] Question: Insights on bidding for 2026 - Management noted that payers are looking for improved economics as they head into 2026, and negotiations are ongoing [61][62] Question: CEO search criteria - The company is looking for a CEO with multi-market management capability, experience with primary care physicians, and operational rigor [68][69] Question: Quality incentives and their potential impact - Management expects an increase in quality incentive dollars from 2025 to 2026, as payers are more willing to put dollars at risk for higher performance [75][76]