Core Insights - Fear of stock market crashes is prevalent among investors, with a consistent belief in a 10%-20% chance of a crash occurring within the next six months since 2000 [2][6] - Current heightened fears are attributed to significant surges in AI stocks and the S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio reaching its third-highest level [3][6] - Despite these fears, historical data suggests that stock crashes following significant market surges are rare and typically short-lived [4][6] Research Findings - Goetzmann's research indicates that instances of a market dropping by at least 50% after a 100% surge are less than 1% based on data since the 1880s [5] - In fact, 26% of the time, markets have continued to rise by another 100% after such surges [5] - Long-term investment strategies are recommended for better returns, despite prevailing market fears [6] Market Behavior - Investors often react to external events, such as natural disasters, by increasing their perceived likelihood of a market crash [3] - Historical examples, such as the dot-com bust, illustrate that significant downturns can lead to prolonged recovery periods, but these are not the norm [7]