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东山精密_2025 年三季度初步点评–收入符合预期但净利润不及预期
2025-10-27 00:31
Summary of Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongshan Precision (DSBJ) - **Ticker**: 002384.SZ - **Date of Report**: 21 Oct 2025 Key Financial Results - **Revenue**: Rmb 10.1 billion, up 3% YoY and 21% QoQ, in line with Citi estimates but missed Bloomberg estimates by 4% [1][3] - **Gross Margin**: 14.1%, down 0.5 percentage points YoY, missed Citi estimates by 2 percentage points [1][3] - **Operating Profit**: Rmb 603 million, down 19% YoY but up 50% QoQ, missed estimates by 34% and 37% [1][3] - **Net Profit**: Rmb 465 million, down 8% YoY; adjusted net profit was Rmb 414 million, down 16% YoY [1][3] - **Operating Margin**: 6.0%, down 1.6 percentage points YoY, but up 1.2 percentage points QoQ [1][3] Reasons for Missed Expectations 1. **iOS Business Impact**: Delay in new model purchases and pull-in effect from 2Q [1] 2. **Increased Administrative Expenses**: Up Rmb 118 million YoY, likely due to new asset acquisitions [1] 3. **Thailand Factory Ramp-Up**: Impact on overall performance [1] Upcoming Earnings Call Focus Areas - Breakdown of 3Q25 business performance [2] - Orders for Apple products in 3Q25 and expected upgrades for 2H26 [2] - Updates on precision component plants and new NEV products for 2026 [2] - Progress in humanoid robot business [2] - LED business updates [2] - Acquisition progress in optical transceiver business [2] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: Rmb 99.00, representing a potential upside of 44.9% from the current price of Rmb 68.33 [4] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb 125.154 billion (approximately US$ 17.578 billion) [4] Valuation Methodology - SOTP (Sum of the Parts) method applied: - 15x P/E for DSBJ's original business 2026 net profits - 30x P/E for optical transceiver business due to market share gains - 15x P/E for backplane PCB business in line with tier-1 peers [11] Key Risks 1. **Slower Progress in FPC Modules**: Potential delays in gaining market share from overseas competitors [12] 2. **Tesla Business Growth**: Risks associated with competition in the China NEV market [12] 3. **Optoelectronic Business Losses**: Continued weak demand and competition [12] 4. **Material Costs**: Rising costs could impact margins [12] 5. **Geopolitical Risks**: US-China relations may affect operations [12] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, reasons for performance misses, future focus areas, valuation outlook, and associated risks for Dongshan Precision as discussed in the 3Q25 earnings call.