The cost of shipping oil from the United States to Asia by sea is hitting record highs. https://t.co/c8BCdLPsi8 ...

The White House says it is suspending the Jones Act. In a statement to CNBC just a couple of minutes ago, White House press secretary Caroline Levit had this to say. She said, "President Trump's decision to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver is just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the US military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury." She says this action will allow vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer and coal to flow freely to US ports ...

Diesel prices for U.S. truckers soared this past week, an ominous sign for retailers and manufacturers juggling tariffs, higher shipping costs and supply-chain disruptions from the Iran war. https://t.co/G10y5t71vK ...

In a desperate bid to transport oil from the US Gulf Coast to Asia, shippers have taken the unusual step of booking smaller vessels as costs soar for the massive tankers typically used https://t.co/8Nchn73FN0 ...

It’s never been more expensive to ship crude from the US to Asia, though some deals are starting to fall through already with rates sky-high https://t.co/W2LlhIHyAj ...

Oil Market Dynamics - The market had priced in a $15-20 per barrel premium due to Israel-Iran tensions, which is now being eliminated as the worst of the turmoil appears to be over [2] - Prior to the conflict, debates centered on tariffs potentially driving recession and leading to $50 oil price predictions [3] - Better-than-expected oil demand data and underperforming OPEC production quotas were observed [4] - Shale oil drilling had decreased, leading to questions about potential rollover [4] - Demand is hanging in at around 1 million barrels per day of growth [6] Factors Influencing Oil Prices - Transportation costs, particularly shipping, have surged due to Middle East risk premiums [5] - The potential for shale oil growth resumption if oil prices remain above $70 is a key variable [6] - Underlying oil fundamentals should be the primary focus, considering past disruptions' varied impacts [6][7] Geopolitical Considerations - The Israel-Iran conflict has not demonstrated Iran's strong military capabilities [8] - Most of Iran's oil sales go to China, making the closure of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely [8][9] - China's role is significant in preventing actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz [9]

Geopolitical Risk & Energy Prices - Rising tensions due to Israel targeting Iran's missile production sites are causing concerns about shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased oil and natural gas prices [1] - Even if shipping lanes remain open, energy prices may still rise due to increased shipping costs related to perceived risk and risk premiums [2] - Shipping costs from the Middle East Gulf to China for super tankers have increased from $140 per barrel of oil moved [5] - News flow, especially aggressive rhetoric from the US, significantly impacts shipping costs [7] - GPS signal jamming in the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk to smooth transport [8][9] Shipping Market Dynamics - Ship owners are considering the possibility of ships being locked up, demanding a premium reflecting risk [4] - The market has caps on how much it will pay for shipping [6] - A two-week pause initiated by the US government for negotiation has eased the temperature, reflected in oil markets [7] - Heightened risk levels persist in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, hindering smooth transport [8] - Potential incidents like mines or kinetic events could significantly increase shipping costs [10][12] Insurance & War Risk - Insurance premiums haven't significantly increased as the region isn't declared an active war zone by the Joint War Committee, but this could change with incidents like mines [12][13]