Group 1 - The article argues that short-term U.S. Treasury bond ETFs, specifically those with maturities between 1-7 years, may present surprising investment opportunities in 2026 [2][5] - The current economic outlook is uncertain, with conflicting views on the economy's strength and the desire for stimulative rate cuts [3][4] - The author identifies two main reasons for a potential decline in short-term U.S. rates in 2026: the demand for lower rates from government officials and investors, and the possibility of an economic recession [6] Group 2 - The two specific ETFs highlighted are the 1-3 Year Treasury Bond iShares (SHY) and the 3-7 Year Treasury Bond iShares (IEI), which have historically performed well in past market cycles [5] - The article suggests that while stocks and longer-term bonds may also be winners in a declining rate scenario, they carry more risk compared to the identified short-term Treasury bond ETFs [5]