Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with analysts divided on whether this indicates the start of a bear market or a temporary bear trap that may lead to a rebound [1][2]. Market Performance - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 6.6% over the past week, with most coins showing negative performance following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2]. - Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, Solana (SOL) experienced the largest decline, dropping 19.5%, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell below critical support levels of $110,000 and $4,000, respectively [3]. Analyst Commentary - Peter Schiff, a long-time critic of cryptocurrency, noted the rise of silver by nearly 3% as Bitcoin declined, suggesting that silver may be the asset that challenges Bitcoin's value [3][4]. - Schiff indicated that Ethereum's drop below $4,000 places it in an official bear market, predicting that Bitcoin may soon follow this trend [4]. Historical Context - Analysts have pointed out that major downturns in the cryptocurrency market often coincide with the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycles, suggesting a historical pattern [5][6]. Technical Analysis - An analyst highlighted Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $111,500, which serves as a critical metric for determining market conditions [7]. - The STH cost basis is expected to remain above the price during a bull market; however, if Bitcoin consistently trades below this level, it may indicate a bear market [8][9].