Key Takeaways from the Satellite Expert Call on China's Commercial Aerospace Industry Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the development status of the **China commercial aerospace industry** and compared domestic players with **SpaceX** in terms of weight, satellite construction cost, and launch cost [1][2]. Current Development Status - Two major **Low-Earth Orbit (LEO)** broadband constellations are under development: - **Spacesail's "Qianfan" constellation**: 108 satellites launched - **Satellite Network's "Xingwang" constellation**: 154 satellites launched - Both projects are progressing slower than planned due to several constraints [2]. Constraints Identified 1. **Limited Launch Capacity**: High costs of Chinese rockets compared to SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 [2]. 2. **Cost-Effectiveness**: Chinese players prioritize reliability over economics, leading to an immature supply chain that will take years to establish [2]. 3. **Lack of Launch Pads**: State-owned facilities prioritize national missions, limiting availability for commercial launches [2]. 4. **Regulatory Approval Process**: The complex and time-consuming process for launch approvals hinders progress [2]. Comparison with SpaceX - There is a significant gap in cost and technology between Chinese players and SpaceX: - **Spacesail's 1st-gen satellites**: ~240kg, costing **RMB 15-20 million** per unit - **Satellite Network's 1st-gen satellites**: 600-800kg, costing **RMB 35-50 million** per unit - **SpaceX's satellites**: Over 800kg, with a production cost under **RMB 20 million**, implying a cost/kg that is half of that of Chinese counterparts [3]. - Launch costs for Chinese rockets are around **RMB 55,000 per kg**, while SpaceX's costs are approximately **RMB 7,000-8,000 per kg**, with a target to reduce costs to near **RMB 1,000 per kg** [3]. Applications and Supply Chain - **Spacesail** aims to have 324 satellites in orbit by **1H26** and plans to begin product testing in markets like **Brazil** and **Malaysia** in **2H26**. The focus is on consumer applications such as maritime and vehicular [4]. - **Satellite Network** has a different supply chain for its 1st-gen and 2nd-gen satellites, with the latter involving multiple commercial entities [4]. Discussion on Space-Based Solar Power - The expert highlighted divergent technology paths between China and the U.S. in solar cell technology: - **SpaceX** uses low-cost, low-efficiency silicon-based cells, while China's industry relies on high-efficiency gallium arsenide (GaAs) cells, costing **RMB 100-200k per sqm** [5]. - Rising interest in **perovskite solar cells** is driven by future demands for in-space computing constellations, which require massive power at lower costs [5]. Implications for the Solar Sector - The accelerating development of commercial aerospace may lead to higher demand for solar power, potentially impacting companies in the solar sector [7].

26 January 2026 | 11:00AM CST Equity Research China Solar: Quick thoughts on potential Space-based Solar Power demand uplift What's new? Share prices for our Solar coverage have rallied by 8%-20% on Jan 23 (vs. largely flat performance of CSI300 and HSI at -0.4%/+0.4%) due to upbeat market expectation of Space-based Solar Power (SBSP) demand that was sparked by the Davos Debut where Elon Musk stated that SpaceX and Tesla each will build 100GW of solar panel capacity in the US in the next three years. Implic ...

Summary of Lead Intelligent (300450.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lead Intelligent (300450.SZ) - **Industry**: Battery Equipment Manufacturing - **Market Position**: Approximately 25% global market share in lithium-ion battery intelligent equipment Key Financial Highlights - **FY25 Net Income**: Pre-announced to be between Rmb1,500 million and Rmb1,800 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 424% to 529% with a midpoint of Rmb1,650 million, which is +477% year-over-year and +25% compared to Goldman Sachs' estimate of Rmb1,315 million [1][17] - **4Q25 Net Income**: Expected to be between Rmb314 million and Rmb614 million, with a midpoint of Rmb464 million, significantly higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of Rmb128 million [1] - **SG&A Ratio Improvement**: SG&A ratio as a percentage of sales decreased from 34%/24%/29% in 2Q24/3Q24/4Q24 to 25%/23%/19% in 1Q25/2Q25/3Q25, contributing to better operational efficiency [1] Growth Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue for FY25 is Rmb14,498 million, with further growth expected to Rmb22,430.5 million in FY26 and Rmb27,368.3 million in FY27 [4] - **EPS Growth**: EPS is expected to grow from Rmb0.18 in FY24 to Rmb1.03 in FY25, and further to Rmb1.64 in FY26 [4][10] Market Dynamics - **Battery Equipment Orders**: Growth driven by increasing demand for energy storage systems (ESS), but offset by a deceleration in domestic electric vehicle (EV) demand. Domestic NEV production/retail volume is expected to grow by +15%/+11% in 2026E, down from +30%/+18% in 2025 [2][17] - **Solid-State Battery Orders**: Increasing trial orders noted, although actual commercialization remains a long-term goal [2] - **Space-Based Solar Power Demand**: Emerging demand for solar equipment linked to space-based solar power, although current contributions are low at 10%/5% in 2024/1-3Q25 [16][17] Risks and Challenges - **Market Saturation**: Anticipated deceleration in global battery equipment total addressable market (TAM) due to domestic battery oversupply and reduced overseas expansion targets [17] - **Account Receivables Risk**: Historical reference to 2019-20 period where Lead Intelligent faced a 25% impairment loss as a percentage of operating profit due to slower EV growth and competitive margin pressure [17] - **Valuation Compression**: Expectation of subsequent compression in valuation multiples for the battery equipment sub-sector [17] Investment Rating and Price Target - **Current Rating**: Neutral since December 8, 2022 - **12-Month Price Target**: Raised to Rmb49.30 from Rmb44.1, based on a 2026E P/E of 30x [1][18] Conclusion - Lead Intelligent is positioned for significant growth in net income and revenue, driven by operational efficiencies and market demand for battery equipment. However, challenges such as market saturation and account receivables risk may impact future performance. The current valuation is considered fair relative to revenue and net income estimates for 2025-2030, maintaining a Neutral rating.