Specialty DRAM

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汇丰:兆易创新-最新研究
汇丰· 2025-06-23 02:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gigadevice Semiconductor and raises the target price to RMB149.50 from RMB140.20, implying approximately 24% upside from the current share price of RMB121.01 [5][12][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights favorable supply-demand dynamics for DDR4, which are expected to continue, benefiting Gigadevice's specialty DRAM business [3][12]. - The 3D DRAM business is progressing well and is anticipated to start generating revenue in the second half of 2025, particularly in mid-end smartphones [4][12]. - The report introduces 2027 estimates, projecting a revenue of RMB14,611 million and a net profit of RMB2,659 million [31]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating and raise target price to RMB149.50 from RMB140.20 [5][12][36]. Financial Performance - The report lowers 2025-26 EPS estimates by 2% and 1% respectively, while still being above consensus by 6% for 2025 [31][32]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-26 are raised by 22% and 28% respectively, driven by expected ASP increases due to supply constraints [33][34]. Market Dynamics - Anticipated 35% increase in specialty DRAM ASP in 2025 due to supply-demand disparity as major suppliers phase out DDR4 products [3][12]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for other DDR4 suppliers is projected to be RMB12 billion, RMB45 billion, and RMB46 billion for 2025-27 [3][12]. Growth Drivers - The 3D DRAM business is expected to be a significant growth engine, with initial revenue generation anticipated in 2H25 [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the stable relationship with CXMT, which will support Gigadevice's capacity expansion in DDR4 [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a net profit CAGR of 34% from 2024-27, adopting a target PE multiple of 52.3x, which is 16% below the historical average [5][36].