目前DDR4报价有效期已缩短至不到一个月，代表价格可能在数周内再次上调。 DDR3涨势更强，第四季有望出现高双位数涨幅。 针对NOR Flash，维持第四季上涨5-10%预期。 随着AirPods等物联网产品与服务器需求潜在增长，NOR供应缺口将从低个位数扩大至中个位数。 闪德资讯获悉，据摩根士丹利报告指出，随着主流存储市场转强，DDR4和DDR3在第四季度将有更大涨价空间，传统型 NAND与NOR存储价格稳定迹象逐渐增强，并有望延续至2026年。 DRAM部分，存储供应商已停止向企业客户提供报价，意味价格仍有上行空间。 并将美光上调至"优于大盘"，目前参与内存上行周期仍不晚。 至于NAND，闪迪已与力积电接洽，讨论未来可能的产能支持，但认为合作机率偏低。 预期未来三季，DDR4供应短缺比例将达10-15%，后段制程瓶颈可能进一步加剧这一情况，因此部分DDR4合约价在第四 季可能翻倍。 闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 预期到2026年，AirPods将占全球NOR需求5–10%，因每副AirPods需使用三颗高密度NOR Flash芯片，意味NOR涨价趋势可 望延续至2026年。 ...

截至2025年10月9日 13:02，中证500质量成长指数(930939)强势上涨1.18%，成分股深科技(000021)上涨10.01%，白银有色(601212)上涨10.00%，水晶光电 (002273)上涨9.98%，中信金属(601061)，上海电力(600021)等个股跟涨。500质量成长ETF(560500)上涨1.24%。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基 金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基金业绩表现的预 示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品资料概要等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情 况及销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。基金有风险，投资 需谨慎。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60155 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry, particularly memory segments (DRAM, NAND, NOR Flash), is experiencing an unprecedented supercycle driven by AI demand [1][2][3] - Chinese memory players are aggressively expanding capacity to meet rising demand [1][2] Key Points on DRAM - **DDR4 Shortage**: Expected to continue until at least Q4 2026, with a projected 10-15% undersupply over the next three quarters, potentially worsened by back-end constraints [2][10][12] - **Price Increases**: Nanya Tech reported a preliminary revenue increase of 79% Q/Q, with average selling prices (ASPs) expected to rise at least 20% Q/Q as market dynamics favor sellers [2][11] - **Long-term Outlook**: Mainstream DRAM players are likely to focus on DDR5 and HBM, providing minimal support for DDR4, which is expected to see a significant decline in demand [14][15] Key Points on NAND - **Demand Divergence**: NAND demand is increasing significantly in AI applications, with CSPs doubling their NL eSSD orders for 2026 [3][48] - **Projected Shortages**: Anticipated 2% NAND shortage in 2026, with a bull case projecting up to an 8% shortage by year-end [3][48] - **Price Expectations**: NAND pricing is expected to rise by at least mid-teens percentage in 2026, benefiting companies like Phison [3][48] Key Points on NOR Flash - **Pricing Support**: NOR pricing is expected to remain well-supported due to capped supply growth and potential demand from IoT applications [4] - **Market Dynamics**: AirPods could account for 5-10% of global NOR demand by 2026, indicating sustained price hikes into 2026 [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: Price targets raised for Nanya Tech (from NT$90 to NT$110), Phison (from NT$800 to NT$1,000), and Silicon Motion (from US$88 to US$100) [7] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Nanya Tech, Winbond, and GigaDevice are favored due to their positioning in the memory upcycle [5][16] - **Earnings Forecasts**: Phison's EPS forecasts have been revised upward by 3% for 2026 and 6% for 2027, reflecting strong NAND pricing trends [68] Additional Insights - **Localization Trends**: Ongoing localization of wafer fab equipment in China is expected to strengthen the domestic semiconductor industry [59][60] - **Capacity Expansion**: CXMT and YMTC are set to expand their capacities significantly, with CXMT potentially exceeding 300k wpm in the long term [61][62] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in memory segments, is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand and capacity expansions from Chinese players. Companies like Nanya Tech, Phison, and SIMO are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with favorable pricing dynamics expected to continue into 2026 and beyond.

October 6, 2025 08:00 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductor | Asia Pacific Old Memory Could Last for a Longer Time Along with stronger mainstream memory, we see stronger pricing upside for DDR4&3 in 4Q and more signs of pricing sustainability for legacy NAND and NOR going into 2026. It is time to look at peak valuations. We revise up price targets and reiterate our Top Pick Winbond. Key Takeaways Never too late on mainstream memory: Our US analyst Joe Moore upgraded Micron to OW (link), stating it's not too la ...

在主流芯片高歌猛进的同时，旧款存储芯片市场正在开启一个值得关注的盈利窗口。 报告首先指出了主流存储市场的紧张局势，这是理解旧款芯片行情的关键背景。 DRAM方面 ：主流DRAM供应商已停止向企业客户提供第四季度的报价。在行业内，这通常是供应短缺、价格即将大幅上涨的强烈信号。 NAND方面 ：行业巨头SanDisk已开始接触力积电（PSMC），探讨未来潜在的产能支持。尽管考虑到SanDisk与铠侠（Kioxia）的合资协议以及技 术差异，双方合作的可能性较低，但这一举动本身就印证了整个NAND行业正面临供应不足的困境。 旧款DRAM价格飙升，涨势或超预期 主流市场的短缺效应，正迅速传导至旧款DDR4和DDR3市场，其价格涨幅甚至可能超过主流产品。 旧款存储芯片迎来"第二春"，繁荣期超预期。 摩根士丹利在2025年10月6日发布的最新研报中表示，旧款存储芯片（Legacy Memory）的繁荣期不仅比市场预期的更强劲，且可能持续更久，直至 2026年。主流存储芯片的供应紧张正传导至旧款产品，导致DDR4、DDR3及NOR Flash等芯片价格出现超预期上涨。 这一趋势为特定半导体公司带来了显著的投资机会。在主流芯 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 这是记忆体模组业2017年以来，首次出现厂商暂停报价，意味市场严重供不应求，厂商看好价格还会继续飙，只 能先「盖牌」惜售，借此创造最大化获利，并宣告这波DRAM涨价潮从南亚科、华邦等上游晶片端蔓延至下游模 组端，整个产业链一片火热。 这波DRAM狂潮，起因AI带动资料存储需求爆发，三星、SK海力士、美光等三大国际记忆体制造商全力冲刺高 频宽记忆体（HBM），排挤DDR4、DDR5生产，甚至退出DDR4制造，但在终端需求对DDR4、DDR5不减反 增、且力道强劲，DDR4价格率先拉出一波倍数涨幅，DDR5也跟进激昂，整个产业全面大复苏。 由于严重缺货，市场疯狂追价囤货导致价格狂涨，美光、南亚科等DRAM厂先前都已陆续传出暂停报价，过往模 组厂都在价格大幅波动时，多半透过「低买高卖」，即先前囤积的低价库存与之后涨上来的现货价之间的价差套 利，「赚价差」，如今威刚、十铨转为主导暂停报价，显示市况比外界预期更热。 威刚是全球第二大、台湾最大记忆体模组厂。威刚董事长陈立白证实，公司这波暂停报价措施将延续至10月中 旬，主要考量DRAM货源严重不足，因此要管控库存和调整配售 ...

威刚是全球第二大、中国台湾最大存储器模组厂。威刚董事长陈立白证实，公司这波暂停报价措施将延 续至10月中旬，主要考量DRAM货源严重不足，因此要管控库存和调整配售方式。 DRAM缺货大涨价狂潮挡不住，全球第二大存储器模组厂威刚（3260）、中国台湾存储器模组二哥十铨 不约而同暂停报价，意味「市况比外界预期更热，价格走势还会更高。」威刚董事长陈立白昨（7）日 高喊：「本季是存储器大多头的起点，也是严重缺货的开始，2026年产业荣景可期」。 这是存储器模组业2017年以来，首次出现厂商暂停报价，意味市场严重供不应求，厂商看好价格还会继 续飙，只能先「盖牌」惜售，借此创造最大化获利，并宣告这波DRAM涨价潮从南亚科、华邦等上游晶 片端蔓延至下游模组端，整个产业链一片火热。 这波DRAM狂潮，起因AI带动资料存储需求爆发，三星、SK海力士、美光等三大国际存储器制造商全 力冲刺高带宽存储器（HBM），排挤DDR4、DDR5生产，甚至退出DDR4制造，但在终端需求对 DDR4、DDR5不减反增、且力道强劲，DDR4价格率先拉出一波倍数涨幅，DDR5也跟进激昂，整个产 业全面大复苏。 由于严重缺货，市场疯狂追价囤货导致价格 ...

过去半年，全球存储芯片价格持续上涨。特别是最近一个月，涨价消息越发密集。韩国三星电子公司、 美国闪迪等主要厂商近期陆续通知客户调整报价，现货市场价格也在短时间内快速上行。 或受此影响，截至10月4日，芯片制造商美光股价月内累计上涨约60%，铠侠与闪迪股价月内累计上涨 均超过100%。 在此背景下，多家机构认为，四季度存储价格或将延续涨势。信达证券预测，AI产品增长影响存储供 需两端，四季度DRAM和NAND价格预计延续增长态势。TrendForce预估，第四季度旧制程DRAM整体 价格环比增长8%~13%，HBM价格环比增长13%~18%；NAND Flash 第四季度各类产品合约价或将全面 上涨，平均涨幅预计达到5%~10%。此外，摩根大通最新研报称，DRAM将迎四年定价上行周期。 多家厂商股价刷新历史最高值 AI应用诞生14只大牛股 资本市场对近期存储芯片行情的变化给出了直接反馈，多家厂商股价持续刷新历史最高值。最近一个 月，美光股价累计上涨约60%，铠侠与闪迪股价累计上涨均超过100%。 探究本轮涨价潮的原因，市场分析认为，本轮涨价潮背后是存储行业供需两端的重构。开源证券指出， 在供应端，今年以来各大存 ...

全球DRAM超级周期正式来临，存储产品的长期供应将持续紧张。 AI正推动DRAM产品进入新的超级周期。 核心驱动力来自HBM的广泛应用，特别是科技巨头积极开发定制化ASIC芯片，提升AI系统的效能。 AI高速发展，DRAM产能正承受前所未有的压力。 每一套AI计算集群都需要大量HBM，进一步推升了对基础DRAM晶圆的需求。 自第二季度以来，DDR4价格一路攀升，带动DDR5也回升，让近期有装机需求的消费者因此面临更高成本压力。 9月美光科技和SanDisk相继发布涨价通知。 SanDisk宣布产品价格上调逾10%后，美光也通知渠道商，产品将上涨20%至30%。 价格飙升的背后源于AI的爆发性增长。 数据显示，全球DRAM供应商的库存仅3周左右，创近七年新低，远低于行业平均的10周，显示市场供不应求的压力正急速升高。 瑞银分析师预测，OpenAI即将推出的ASIC芯片将用12层堆叠的HBM3E技术。 随着HBM4等新一代技术即将推出，需求预料将进一步扩大，加速DRAM产业的成长。 目前，扩充DRAM供应仍是满足科技巨头对HBM强烈需求的唯一办法。 转自：芯调查 可能在2026至2029年间消耗全球每月50万至6 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanya Technology (南亚科) benefits from rising DRAM prices and volumes, reporting significant revenue growth in September and the third quarter of the year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - September revenue reached NT$6.664 billion, a month-over-month decrease of 1.45% but a year-over-year increase of 158% [1] - Third-quarter revenue totaled NT$18.779 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 78.3% and a year-over-year increase of 130.9%, marking a three-and-a-half-year high for quarterly revenue [1] - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters amounted to NT$36.493 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 32.4% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major memory manufacturers, including Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, have halted DDR4 production, leading to a significant increase in Nanya's DRAM contract prices, with a price increase of 15% to 30% this quarter [1] - The scarcity of DDR4 products is expected to improve Nanya's operational performance moving forward [1] Group 3: Production and Strategy - Nanya's production capacity is currently fully loaded, with DDR4 products accounting for 50% of its revenue, benefiting from rising average selling prices (ASP) due to increasing DRAM contract prices [1] - The company has implemented a second-generation 10nm process and plans to gradually increase the proportion of high-end products to optimize production efficiency and yield [2] - Nanya is collaborating with Formosa Plastics Group's Fumao Technology to establish 3D TSV processes and is working with strategic partner Patch Technology to develop high-performance, low-power memory solutions [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Nanya is optimistic about AI demand driving the need for high-end memory, with plans to mass-produce DDR5 and LPDDR5 to secure orders in AI servers, data centers, and mobile devices [2] - A financial briefing is scheduled for the 13th, where the company will announce its third-quarter financial results and fourth-quarter operational outlook, with a focus on DRAM price increases and market expectations [2]