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DraftKings(DKNG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-07 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, DraftKings generated $1,144 million in revenue, representing a 4% year-over-year growth [14] - The company reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $127 million for the quarter, which was below expectations due to customer-friendly sports outcomes impacting revenue by over $300 million [14][9] - For fiscal year 2025, revenue guidance was revised to $5.9 billion-$6.1 billion, down from the previous guidance of $6.2 billion-$6.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 24%-28% compared to fiscal year 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sportsbook handle increased by 10% year-over-year to $11.4 billion, with a significant acceleration in October, where total sportsbook handle increased 17% year-over-year [16][6] - iGaming net revenue growth accelerated to 25% year-over-year in Q3 2025, marking the fastest growth since Q1 2024 [6] - Customer retention rates for NFL Week One customers improved by over 300 basis points compared to the same weeks a year ago [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The parlay handle mix surged with year-over-year gains of 800 basis points for NFL season to date and 1,000 basis points for NBA season to date [6] - NFL handle grew by 13% season to date, while NBA handle grew by 19% season to date, indicating an acceleration in growth compared to previous quarters [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is optimistic about its future, citing new exclusive marketing agreements with ESPN and NBCUniversal as key advantages [4] - DraftKings is set to launch DraftKings Predictions, which is viewed as a significant incremental opportunity to expand its total addressable market [10] - The company plans to focus on states where it does not currently offer sportsbooks, targeting areas with the most financial opportunity [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the impact of customer-friendly sports outcomes on financial results but emphasized that these variances typically normalize over time [21][22] - The company remains confident in its long-term financial potential, with expectations of generating $450-$550 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2025 [17] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong customer engagement and product enhancements to drive future growth [5] Other Important Information - DraftKings has repurchased 9.3 million shares since the inception of its share repurchase program, with the board authorizing an increase in the program from $1 billion to $2 billion [12] - The company is developing innovative slot and jackpot content in iGaming and has brought in a new leader to solidify its position in this area [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about OSB hold percentage and customer-friendly outcomes - Management acknowledged the frustration with recent outcomes but noted that such variances are part of the business and typically normalize over time [21][22] Question: Value of new board member Greg Went - Management expressed excitement about Greg Went's addition to the board, highlighting his expertise in investing and capital markets [24] Question: Balancing structural hold and volatility with increasing parlay offerings - Management emphasized the importance of maximizing long-term value while managing risk, acknowledging that volatility can occur during concentrated events [26][29] Question: Profitability of prediction markets - Management stated that they will take a conservative approach to investment in prediction markets, focusing on data-driven decisions and shorter payback periods [30][32] Question: Conversations with regulators regarding prediction markets - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with regulators to ensure compliance and to understand the market landscape [36][38] Question: Significance of the ESPN deal - Management highlighted the strategic importance of the ESPN partnership, which will enhance customer engagement and marketing efforts [45][46] Question: Impact of promotional spending on guidance - Management indicated that most of the guidance adjustment was due to sports outcomes, with some consideration for promotional spending related to new product launches [57] Question: Investment focus for the upcoming year - Management indicated that there would be minimal incremental investment in core business areas, with a focus on new states and AI technology [63][64] Question: Spanish-language app opportunity - Management expressed excitement about the upcoming Spanish-language app, particularly in light of the World Cup and the growing Hispanic demographic in the U.S. [86][88] Question: Attribution of growth in parlay mix - Management attributed the growth in parlay mix to a combination of product innovation and effective promotional strategies [90]