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Is a Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate Below 4% or Almost 6%?
The Motley Fool· 2026-01-22 04:38
Core Insights - The primary financial goal for most Americans is retirement, with a focus on not running out of money once retired [1][8] - A recent report from Morningstar indicates a safe withdrawal rate for new retirees is 3.9%, suggesting a starting withdrawal of $39,000 for a $1 million portfolio [10][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of asset allocation, recommending a lower equity allocation of 20-50% for retirees to achieve the highest withdrawal rates [12] Tax Considerations - Most Americans tend to over-withhold taxes, with about two-thirds receiving refunds averaging over $3,000, which may increase due to recent tax legislation [3][4] - The IRS will adjust tax brackets for 2026, increasing the threshold for higher tax rates by 2.3% to 4% [3] Housing and Happiness - Research suggests that smaller houses can lead to greater happiness, as larger homes often come with sacrifices such as longer commutes and larger mortgages [5][6] - The article highlights that happiness peaks in households of four to six people, regardless of home size, and emphasizes the importance of neighborhood factors over square footage [5][7] Investment Trends - The U.S. stock market's share of the global market is near an all-time high at 64%, while Japan's share has decreased to 5% from over 40% in the late 1980s [7] - Non-U.S. stocks showed significant recovery in 2025, with returns of 32%, marking their best performance since 2009 [7] Withdrawal Strategies - The report discusses various withdrawal strategies, including dynamic methods that allow for higher initial withdrawals but require adjustments based on portfolio performance [16][19] - A notable strategy is the guardrail method, which adjusts withdrawals based on portfolio performance while minimizing drastic spending cuts [18][20]