Core Insights - The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) has increased approximately 10% in the past month, nearing its all-time high from November 2024, which is a positive indicator for the broader stock market according to Dow Theory [1][2] Analysis of Historical Data - Historical analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) since 1950 shows varying returns based on timeframes, with slight underperformance in the one-month period when the index is near its all-time high, but similar returns thereafter with reduced volatility [3] - The DJT's performance differs significantly; when near a record high, its average return drops to 2.55% with only 53% of returns positive, compared to an average return of about 10% and 66% positive returns when not near a high [6][5] Testing Dow Theory - When both the DJI and DJT are within 1% of their record highs, the DJI's average return is 6.17% over the next year with 66% of returns positive, while the DJT's average return is only 2.43% [9][8]