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AT&T Stock Can Sink, Here Is How
Forbes· 2025-10-30 14:35
Group 1: Stock Performance and Historical Context - AT&T's stock has experienced significant volatility, with declines of over 30% occurring on two occasions within a two-month period, resulting in billions in market value loss [1] - Historical declines include nearly 46% during the Global Financial Crisis, about 39% in the Dot-Com crash, and approximately 37% during the inflation shock, indicating susceptibility to broader market pressures [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Competitive Landscape - The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio reached 3.0x in Q3 2025, with total debt at $139.5 billion, despite generating $4.9 billion in free cash flow during the same quarter [6] - Postpaid churn increased to 0.92% in Q3 2025, with T-Mobile gaining 1 million postpaid net phone subscribers compared to AT&T's 405,000, highlighting strong competition [6] - Business wireline revenues fell by 9.3% in Q2 2025 to $4.3 billion, with a decline expected as copper services are phased out by 2029 [6] - Revenue growth was reported at 1.5% for the last twelve months and 0.6% for the last three-year average, with a free cash flow margin of approximately 15.8% and an operating margin of 19.9% [6] Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - AT&T's stock trades at a P/E ratio of 14.2, offering lower valuation compared to the S&P, alongside reduced revenue growth but improved margins [6] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark indices, indicating a potential strategy for investors seeking reduced risk and superior returns [8]