There's absolutely zero logic behind the stock to flow model. Why would the inflation rate going from say just as a number 0.5% to 0.25% cause a 10x in the value of Bitcoin. That that that there's no logic to that. ...

Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44🔵)As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range). Interesting times head. https://t.co/8R91WdWCVR ...

RT PlanB (@100trillionUSD)4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the aver ...

4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price has experienced a decline for four consecutive days, raising concerns about the potential end of the current bull run, particularly following the recent Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The decline in Bitcoin's price is characterized as a "sell the news" event, triggered by the Federal Reserve's indication that a rate cut may not occur in December, leading short-term traders to liquidate positions [2] - On-chain data from Binance revealed a significant inflow of over 10,000 BTC, primarily from addresses that held the coins for less than 24 hours, indicating a reaction from short-term traders and speculators [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Losses - Despite the bearish sentiment, the overall market damage remains minor, with unrealized losses at $107K, which is approximately 1.3% of Bitcoin's market cap [4] - Historically, significant surges in Bitcoin's unrealized losses precede the start of a "crypto winter," with the 2022 bear market intensifying after unrealized losses reached around 20% of total market capitalization [5]

The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model measures scarcity to estimate $BTC's value.Once praised for its simplicity and accuracy, it no longer holds predictive power. In this article, we explore how it works and its rise and fall.Read the full article 👇https://t.co/IY39iaPYLn ...