>> WELCOME BACK TO SQUAWK BOX. THE CEASEFIRE IN IRAN IN THE IRAN WAR, PROMPTING SO MANY QUESTIONS OF WHETHER THE US, IRAN AND ISRAEL CAN REACH A PEACE DEAL IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. JOINING US RIGHT NOW ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS, RETIRED VICE ADMIRAL KEVIN DONEGAN.HE SERVED AS COMMANDER OF THE US NAVY'S FIFTH FLEET AND IS NOW A DISTINGUISHED MILITARY FELLOW AT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE. GOOD MORNING TO YOU. WE'RE ALL TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THIS ALL GOES.OBVIOUSLY, I THINK THE WORD OF THE MORNING RIGHT NOW ...

RT ayden (@squatsons)Iranian speed boats seen heading back to Iranian shores on satellite imagery after attacking a tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. https://t.co/yVqZpYa7hH ...

The administration is weighing, sending American troops to escort ships through that passageway and they want other countries to join the effort. I think that's what President Trump is calling upon the world, saying the entire world is affected. Iran can't hold your economies hostage, and we certainly welcome, encourage, and even demand their participation to help their own EMPLOYEES.JOINING ME NOW IS MAJOR GLENN IGNAZIO, FORMER AIR FORCE SPECIAL OPERATIONS COMMANDER AND NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERT. WELCOME BA ...

WELCOME TO MEET THE PRESS NOW I'M KRISTEN WELKER IN WASHINGTON. PRESIDENT TRUMP HIT THE ROAD TODAY VISITING OHIO AND KENTUCKY TO TOUT HIS ECONOMIC AGENDA. HE'S SET TO DELIVER REMARKS THIS HOUR.BUT IT OF COURSE, COMES AS THE ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO CONTAIN THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT FROM THE WAR WITH IRAN. WITH FUEL PRICES RISING AND GROWING CONCERNS ABOUT SAFETY IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A VITAL SHIPPING LANE THAT BORDERS IRAN, OIL PRICES MOVED HIGHER ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THEY'RE NOW UP ROUGHLY 30% SINCE THE STAR ...

Oil Market Dynamics - Chinese traders are considered the most influential oil traders, primarily due to their significant purchases of Iranian crude oil [1] - Approximately 80% of Iranian oil is re-flagged through Malaysia before being exported, mainly to China [1] - The White House has seemingly turned a blind eye to sanctions, allowing Iranian oil to continue flowing at high levels [2] - There are concerted efforts to avoid interrupting the oil supply, with no party, including Iran, wanting to halt the flow [2] - Concerns about Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz are less about physical barriers and more about the potential for missile attacks on tankers [3] Supply and Demand - Current oil demand is extraordinarily high at 103 million barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 1300 barrels per second [5] - Global oil production capacity stands at 108 million barrels per day, indicating a spare capacity of 5 million barrels per day [5] - Spare capacity is primarily located in the Gulf region [6] - Strong demand, particularly due to Middle Eastern heat, has supported oil prices, with an extra 400,000 barrels per day of demand [9] - A cold winter in key markets (Northeast Asia, Europe, and the US) added over 1 million barrels per day of extra demand in Q1 [9] Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - The market perceives a low risk of interruption in the Straits of Hormuz, as major players like China, the US, Europe, and Saudi Arabia want the oil to keep flowing [6] - The likelihood of the Straits of Hormuz being shut by the end of June is considered extremely low [7] - The market is in a plentiful supply situation, potentially pushing commodity prices lower even after accounting for risk premiums [8] - Incremental geopolitical disasters are needed to significantly increase oil prices [10]