Strategic Turnaround

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Gap Stock Tumbles 15% Post Q1 Earnings: Bargain Buy or Bearish Signal?
ZACKS· 2025-05-30 16:22
Core Viewpoint - Gap Inc. reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings per share of 51 cents and sales of $3.5 billion, both exceeding expectations. However, the stock fell 14.85% in after-hours trading due to concerns over tariff-related costs and a muted outlook for the second quarter and fiscal 2025 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share of 51 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents, representing a 24.4% year-over-year improvement [2]. - Sales reached $3.5 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.42 billion, and increased by 2% year over year [2]. Tariff-Related Concerns - Management disclosed potential gross incremental costs of $250-$300 million due to tariffs, with net impacts of $100-$150 million on fiscal 2025 operating income, raising investor concerns about profitability [3]. - The anticipated impacts are expected to weigh more heavily in the latter half of the fiscal year, leading to worries about margin compression [3]. Sales Outlook - Gap guided for flat year-over-year sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, which is weaker than investor expectations [4]. - The company reaffirmed a sales growth forecast of just 1-2% for fiscal 2025, indicating limited upside potential [4]. Brand Performance - Athleta's comparable sales declined by 8% in the first quarter, while Banana Republic's net sales fell by 3%, suggesting ongoing struggles in these brands [5]. - Management acknowledged challenges in product and customer alignment for Athleta and a slow recovery for Banana Republic despite brand rebuilding efforts [5]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Gap's stock has outperformed the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, rising 30.9% compared to the industry's 4.9% growth [6][8]. - The stock is currently priced at $27.95, 8.6% below its 52-week high of $30.59 and 64.5% above its 52-week low of $16.99 [9]. Valuation Metrics - Gap's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 11.79X, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.27X and the S&P 500's 21.66X [14]. - The forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.68X is also substantially lower than the industry average of 1.8X and the S&P 500's 5.06X [14]. Strategic Initiatives - Gap is focusing on operational improvements, including supply-chain efficiency, cost controls, and digital transformation to enhance customer experience [18]. - The company is investing in product innovation and sustainability to reconnect with younger consumers and maintain brand relevance [19]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite short-term concerns, the company continues to show progress in its strategic turnaround, with strong financial results indicating potential for long-term growth [20]. - Gap remains attractively priced relative to peers, suggesting value for long-term investors, although near-term uncertainties persist [21][22].
Capri Holdings Q4 Earnings Fall Short of Estimates, Revenues Dip Y/Y
ZACKS· 2025-05-28 17:26
Core Insights - Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) reported disappointing fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings declining year over year, although total revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate while earnings fell short [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted an adjusted quarterly loss of $4.90 per share, significantly wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 16 cents, and down from adjusted earnings of 42 cents in the prior year [4] - Total revenues were $1,035 million, a decrease of 15.4% year over year on a reported basis and 14.1% on a constant-currency basis, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $983 million [5] - Gross profit fell 17.7% year over year to $631 million, with gross margin contracting 170 basis points to 61% [5] Segment Performance - Versace revenues decreased 21.2% year over year to $208 million, with gross profit dropping to $136 million and gross margin contracting 60 basis points to 65.4% [6] - Jimmy Choo's revenues were $133 million, down 2.9% on a reported basis, with gross profit decreasing to $88 million and gross margin contracting 390 basis points to 66.2% [7] - Michael Kors revenues were $694 million, a decrease of 15.6% on a reported basis, with gross profit falling to $407 million and gross margin contracting 220 basis points to 58.6% [8] Strategic Developments - Capri Holdings is in the early stages of a strategic turnaround, with positive indicators emerging from new initiatives despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges [2] - The announced sale of the Versace brand to Prada Group for $1.375 billion aims to sharpen focus, strengthen the balance sheet, reduce debt, and potentially reinstate share repurchases [3][11] Financial Health - As of the end of the quarter, Capri Holdings had cash and cash equivalents of $166 million, long-term debt of $1.48 billion, and total shareholders' equity of $372 million [9] - Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $281 million, while free cash flow totaled $153 million [9] Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, total revenues are expected to be in the range of $765 to $780 million, indicating a decline from $1,067 million in the year-ago quarter [13] - For fiscal 2026, total revenues are projected to be between $3.3 billion and $3.4 billion, down from $4.4 billion in 2025, with an anticipated operating income of around $100 million [15] - Diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2026 are forecasted to be between $1.20 and $1.40, compared to a loss of $10 per share in 2024 [16]