Core Insights - Ark Invest's CEO Cathie Wood predicts that President Donald Trump will begin purchasing Bitcoin for a strategic reserve before the 2026 midterms to maintain political momentum and support from the crypto voter base [1][2]. Group 1: Motivations for Bitcoin Purchases - The first motivation is to avoid becoming a lame duck president, as losing midterms typically limits a president's ability to pass legislation and advance their agenda [2]. - The second motivation stems from Trump's family's significant investments in Bitcoin and crypto assets, which faced pressure due to poor performance in 2025 [3]. - The third motivation is the crucial role the crypto community played in Trump's 2024 election victory, necessitating the delivery on promises to maintain support [4]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Wood anticipates that Trump will collaborate with his crypto and AI czar to advance initiatives such as building a strategic Bitcoin reserve and passing a de minimis tax exemption for small Bitcoin transactions [4]. - The original plan aimed for a reserve of 1 million Bitcoin, but currently, the reserve only consists of seized assets from criminal cases [4]. Group 3: Economic Context - The administration's ability to purchase Bitcoin is constrained by the requirement for budget neutrality, as stated by AI and crypto czar David Sacks [5]. - Wood believes that stronger-than-expected economic growth will provide workarounds to this constraint, allowing for Bitcoin purchases without increasing the deficit [5]. - Recent tax changes, including a reduction in the effective U.S. corporate tax rate to 10% and 100% first-year depreciation for manufacturing facilities, are expected to drive significant GDP growth, increasing tax revenue and creating fiscal space for Bitcoin purchases [6][7].

New hopium just droppedMacroScope (@MacroScope17):It’s been a while since we heard anything about the BTC strategic reserve. Or the US government possibly buying BTC.When something in the market gets very quiet, but you know it hasn’t gone away, it can be a good time to start paying attention.Here’s what I’ve started to ...