Trading Strategy & Risk Management - Strategy hopping is a common issue, often a flight from the difficult phase of strategy development [1] - All strategies operate with randomness and friction; losing streaks don't necessarily indicate a flawed strategy [1] - Humans struggle to internalize the frequency of losing streaks, expecting outcomes to balance out quickly [2] - Focus on making mathematically optimal decisions, not solely on individual outcomes [3] Probability of Losing Streaks - With a 40% success rate, the probability of experiencing a losing streak of 5 or more is approximately 98% over 100 trades [4] - With a 40% success rate, the probability of experiencing a losing streak of 6 or more is approximately 87% over 100 trades [4] - With a 40% success rate, the probability of experiencing a losing streak of 7 or more is approximately 69% over 100 trades [4] - With a 40% success rate, the probability of experiencing a losing streak of 8 or more is approximately 49% over 100 trades [4] Analogy - Even elite performers experience losing streaks; focus on the process, not just the result [3]