March 23, 2026 10:41 AM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Positioning Unwind or Structural Shift? Was the recent selloff mostly driven by positioning unwind, or does it signal a more durable structural shift? History from our skew framework suggests positioning-driven moves tend to fade within 10–15 trading days, placing us near an inflection point over the next few weeks. Key Takeaways For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the trends in the jewelry market, particularly focusing on consumer behavior and the influence of central banks on the industry [1][2]. - It highlights the expected growth in the jewelry sector, projecting significant increases in demand by 2025 [1][2]. Group 2 - The role of ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) in the jewelry market is examined, indicating a growing interest from institutional investors [1][2]. - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer preferences in shaping the future of the jewelry market, suggesting that trends will continue to evolve [1][2].

Market Structure and Investor Behavior - Market structure influences price movements and liquidity, affecting investor perception and stock performance [1] - Momentum is driven by structural factors like passive funds and buybacks rather than just stock fundamentals [1] - Bull markets create a false sense of security among investors, leading to a neglect of risk assessment [2][3] - The illusion of skill in investing often arises from favorable market conditions rather than actual decision-making [3] Signs of Structural Shifts - Structural shifts are indicated by narrowing market breadth, where fewer stocks drive index gains [4] - A slowdown in corporate buybacks and increased insider selling signal potential structural changes [4] - Changes in sector correlations and capital allocation reflect shifts in market structure [4] Impact of Structural Changes on Investment Strategies - Strategies reliant on momentum and leverage may fail when market structure changes, as seen in past market collapses [5] - Successful investors adapt to structural changes by reducing exposure and rebalancing before volatility increases [5] - Discipline in investment processes is crucial for navigating market shifts effectively [5] Trading with Structural Awareness - Identifying catalysts from structural changes, such as spinoffs and governance shifts, can reveal mispriced opportunities [7] - Structural alpha is most apparent when market narratives fade and liquidity tightens, emphasizing the importance of process over conviction [7] - Position sizing should be data-driven, aligning with structural changes before they become widely recognized [7] Conclusion on Market Cycles - Confidence built during bull markets often leads to harsh corrections when market structures shift [8] - Endurance and a disciplined process are key to surviving market transitions, as understanding structure provides a competitive edge [8]