Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing a moderate upward trend as investors position themselves ahead of key policy meetings, with expectations around monetary policy direction being the main driver of gold and silver volatility [3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a strong consensus among investors regarding an imminent moderate policy adjustment, with the probability of interest rate cuts elevated to a highly consistent range [4] - This near-certain expectation allows precious metals to react in advance of the actual announcement, while the market retains some observation space regarding the policy pace into 2025, particularly under a "gentle but cautious" communication backdrop [4] Group 2: Institutional Accumulation - Central banks worldwide are steadily increasing their gold reserves, providing deeper structural support to the market, alongside positive inflows into precious metal ETFs, reflecting stable demand for diversification and hedging [5] - This trend is closely linked to the long-term uncertainty of the global monetary environment, forming a substantial bottom support structure for gold prices [5] Group 3: Employment Data Resilience - Labor market indicators show "moderate fluctuations but overall stability," with job vacancies remaining high and layoffs not altering the fundamental resilience of the labor market [6] - This data structure offers policymakers ample flexibility, allowing for a gradual approach to easing without the need for aggressive or urgent policy changes [6] Group 4: Diverging Views on Future Momentum - Despite strong performance in precious metals, some analysts express caution regarding sustained momentum, suggesting that if the pace of easing slows next year, the market may reassess the short-term upside potential for precious metals [7] - The derivatives market has adjusted its forecasts for the number of rate cuts in the coming year, indicating a search for balance between inflation resilience and economic strength [7] Group 5: Structural Strength of Precious Metals - The rise in precious metals is driven by multiple structural factors: stable expectations for policy easing, long-term demand from official institutions, and the healthy performance of the labor market providing policy flexibility [8] - As long as policy communication does not significantly deviate from core market expectations, the overall trend for precious metals is likely to remain strong, with short-term fluctuations stemming from natural corrections of expectation differences [8]